Why the DA is likely to win the coalition war in Johanesburg

Who can form a government in Johannesburg? The ANC has the most votes‚ but there are several scenarios in which it could be unseated by an opposition coalition.

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These are the number of seats won by the parties in the election:
ANC: 121 seats
DA: 104
EFF: 30
IFP: 5
AIC: 4
VF PLUS: 1
ACDP: 1
ALJAMA: 1
UDM: 1
COPE: 1
PA: 1

There are a total of 270 seats (up from 260 in the 2011 election)‚ so a party would have to obtain 136 to rule.

These are the possible winning combinations:

ANC 121 + EFF 30 = Clear majority of 151 seats

This would make for a simple and clear majority. It is desirable from an ANC point of view as the two parties have the closest voter demographic. Most of the EFF votes come from people who once voted for the ANC. It could‚ however‚ be politically difficult because it is not desirable for the EFF.

The EFF has publicly stated in very clear terms that it won’t enter into a coalition with the ANC because it does not want to hitch itself to a party in decline. There is also the fact that its voters may be asking themselves why they switched parties only to find the party they rejected in power with the help of the EFF.

Likelihood: 25%

DA 104 + EFF 30 + IFP 5 = Narrow majority of 139 seats

Like the ANC/EFF scenario‚ this has simplicity on its side. But there may be political difficulties again. The DA and IFP could probably sit comfortably in the same space with the avowedly free market DA mayoral candidate Herman Mashaba. But the radical leftism of the EFF might make for a very uncomfortable business partner.

Perhaps the attraction of chucking the ANC out of the country’s economic hub might overwhelm ideological sensibilities.

Likelihood: 45%

ANC 121 + DA 104 = Thunderous majority of 225 seats

For such a move to succeed the local ANC would have to put some ‘blue water’‚ as it were‚ between itself and the national ANC as the DA would not be keen to be getting into bed with Zuma. Such a coalition is highly unlikely as the two parties would prefer to be a dominant player in coalition with much smaller parties.

Likelihood: 15%

ANC 121 + IFP 5 + AIC 4 + 6 other small parties = Unstable coalition of 136 seats

This scenario is not totally out of the question. Remember that the VF Plus has a deputy minister. The ANC might throw that into the mix to strong-arm them into joining up with the likes of the UDM‚ Cope and others.

This would be a highly unstable coalition with parties with one seat being able to threaten the majority at any point.

Liklihood: 15%

It’s still very much a guessing game‚ but I think the most likely outcome right now is a DA‚ EFF‚ IFP coalition.

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