South Africa woke up to a new set of headlines about Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan yesterday. This time the newspapers told us that the Hawks investigative unit had written to his lawyers and told them they would not arrest the finance minister.
That should bring some relief to many who have been worried about the devastating instability around the finance ministry and the impact of all these shenanigans on the rand, the investment climate and the economy.
But is this the end of this sorry saga?
No, not by a long shot. The enmity between a corrupt, acquisitive elite built around President Jacob Zuma and another ANC faction, supporting Gordhan, is deeper now than it has ever been.
This weekend’s ceasefire is the beginning of a new form of battle.
This is what happens next.
Over the next few weeks and months a pincer movement will gain currency.
Two narratives will be advanced. The first narrative will be that Gordhan and his team at the National Treasury are holding back transformation and that, as Small Business Development Minister Lindiwe Zulu said last week, they must not behave as though they are in “England or America”.
This is the narrative that is meant to keep the black middle class – particularly those influenced by the Gauteng ANC, which has not been impressed by Zuma’s poor leadership and his terrible stewardship of the economy – pacified.
Who, after all, doesn’t want transformation accelerated all of 22 years after democracy? Who wants a state that allows one ministry to hold back necessary and urgent transformation?
Even the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters want transformation, dammit!
And so that narrative will trundle on. The aim?
To tell this particular constituency that their economic prospects tomorrow, with a Treasury without Gordhan, will be better than their reality today.
A second narrative will also be advanced to buttress the first.
This second narrative says to look with wonder upon the works of Brian Molefe, the man who in February said about the Guptas that they are “like the Ruperts or Oppenheimers or any other family business in SA”. Did he not do an amazing job at the PIC? And at Transnet? And at Eskom (no load shedding for a year!)?
In the meantime, the National Treasury will come under increasing pressure from various forces.
The apartheid-era cop who lied under oath and now heads the Hawks, Berning Ntlemeza, will increase the pressure on Gordhan through the bogus investigation that the unit has been conducting for months.
The SARS, which is aiding and abetting Ntlemeza, will continue to behave as though it is not accountable to Gordhan and will defy him and his colleagues.
Whispering campaigns will continue against Gordhan and his colleagues at Treasury. There will be whispers about Gordhan’s academic qualifications, his leadership of Treasury, his relationships with various people and entities.
The horrendous smear campaign currently focused on deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas will encompass Gordhan and others at Treasury.
All this will be done with the tacit support of the president of the republic, a man who has made it clear that he was very satisfied with Des van Rooyen, the man he appointed in December last year – and wiped off hundreds of billions of rand in value from ordinary workers’ pensions and savings.
Remember Zuma said just a week and a half ago at the ANC’s provincial NGC that Van Rooyen “was the best candidate to take over the control of the economy”.
Zuma then moaned that “South Africa is the only country in the world in which the majority does not control its own economy”. Meanwhile, the Zuma machine will also be working furiously to sell the story that there is no capture of the state or Zuma himself by the Gupta family.
Remember Zuma’s words at the ANC NGC in Gauteng: “If you talk about state capture, you’re misleading people. You’re taking a small issue and making it a big issue.” So it will go. Gordhan’s departure will come from his wife and family saying to him: “What is the point of this? Why are you stressing yourself out like this?”
At some point he will join many other great men and women lost to the public service after Zuma’s arrival at the Union Buildings.
It will happen in time. And when it does, we will all gratefully accept that indeed “transformation” has to happen and that “the economy is in good hands”.
Then SAA, which Zuma has vowed to “get closer” to, will get its multi-billion rand bailout with the blessing of a new finance minister. The nuclear build programme will take off, costing us billions.
Eskom’s deal with Tegeta will finally be smoothed out, making the Guptas and Zumas instant billionaires. The PIC will suddenly see a spike of very soft loans – soon to be written off – to certain connected individuals. The Treasury will have been stolen.
This is what our future looks like under President Zuma.
Likely spin ahead to pave way for exit of Gordhan
That should bring some relief to many who have been worried about the devastating instability around the finance ministry and the impact of all these shenanigans on the rand, the investment climate and the economy.
But is this the end of this sorry saga?
No, not by a long shot. The enmity between a corrupt, acquisitive elite built around President Jacob Zuma and another ANC faction, supporting Gordhan, is deeper now than it has ever been.
This weekend’s ceasefire is the beginning of a new form of battle.
This is what happens next.
Over the next few weeks and months a pincer movement will gain currency.
Two narratives will be advanced. The first narrative will be that Gordhan and his team at the National Treasury are holding back transformation and that, as Small Business Development Minister Lindiwe Zulu said last week, they must not behave as though they are in “England or America”.
This is the narrative that is meant to keep the black middle class – particularly those influenced by the Gauteng ANC, which has not been impressed by Zuma’s poor leadership and his terrible stewardship of the economy – pacified.
Who, after all, doesn’t want transformation accelerated all of 22 years after democracy? Who wants a state that allows one ministry to hold back necessary and urgent transformation?
Even the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters want transformation, dammit!
And so that narrative will trundle on. The aim?
To tell this particular constituency that their economic prospects tomorrow, with a Treasury without Gordhan, will be better than their reality today.
A second narrative will also be advanced to buttress the first.
This second narrative says to look with wonder upon the works of Brian Molefe, the man who in February said about the Guptas that they are “like the Ruperts or Oppenheimers or any other family business in SA”. Did he not do an amazing job at the PIC? And at Transnet? And at Eskom (no load shedding for a year!)?
In the meantime, the National Treasury will come under increasing pressure from various forces.
The apartheid-era cop who lied under oath and now heads the Hawks, Berning Ntlemeza, will increase the pressure on Gordhan through the bogus investigation that the unit has been conducting for months.
The SARS, which is aiding and abetting Ntlemeza, will continue to behave as though it is not accountable to Gordhan and will defy him and his colleagues.
Whispering campaigns will continue against Gordhan and his colleagues at Treasury. There will be whispers about Gordhan’s academic qualifications, his leadership of Treasury, his relationships with various people and entities.
The horrendous smear campaign currently focused on deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas will encompass Gordhan and others at Treasury.
All this will be done with the tacit support of the president of the republic, a man who has made it clear that he was very satisfied with Des van Rooyen, the man he appointed in December last year – and wiped off hundreds of billions of rand in value from ordinary workers’ pensions and savings.
Remember Zuma said just a week and a half ago at the ANC’s provincial NGC that Van Rooyen “was the best candidate to take over the control of the economy”.
Zuma then moaned that “South Africa is the only country in the world in which the majority does not control its own economy”. Meanwhile, the Zuma machine will also be working furiously to sell the story that there is no capture of the state or Zuma himself by the Gupta family.
Remember Zuma’s words at the ANC NGC in Gauteng: “If you talk about state capture, you’re misleading people. You’re taking a small issue and making it a big issue.” So it will go. Gordhan’s departure will come from his wife and family saying to him: “What is the point of this? Why are you stressing yourself out like this?”
At some point he will join many other great men and women lost to the public service after Zuma’s arrival at the Union Buildings.
It will happen in time. And when it does, we will all gratefully accept that indeed “transformation” has to happen and that “the economy is in good hands”.
Then SAA, which Zuma has vowed to “get closer” to, will get its multi-billion rand bailout with the blessing of a new finance minister. The nuclear build programme will take off, costing us billions.
Eskom’s deal with Tegeta will finally be smoothed out, making the Guptas and Zumas instant billionaires. The PIC will suddenly see a spike of very soft loans – soon to be written off – to certain connected individuals. The Treasury will have been stolen.
This is what our future looks like under President Zuma.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Register (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Trending Now
Latest Videos