Jobs boost for BCM- Almost 4% lower unemployment than the end of 2016 – but y/y the picture is a bleak 5.4% rise

While the Eastern Cape recorded the highest increase in the unemployment rate in the first quarter (Q1) of this year compared to Q1 of 2016, there was some good news for Buffalo City Municipality.

During the same period, 18000 more people were employed in BCM, resulting in a drop in unemployment by 3.9% from January to March 2017 compared to Q4 of 2016.

However the picture changes when the unemployment rate is compared with the same period last year (Jan-Mar 2016). Unemployment grew by 5.4% year-on-year in BCM.

The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by statistician-general Pali Lehohla yesterday showed that the province shed 5000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The statistics also showed a gloomy picture overall, with the country’s unemployment rate pushing up to 27.7% – the highest since September 2003. This increase was as a result of the growth in the number of job-seekers. This shows that on a quarter-to-quarter basis, South Africa’s official unemployment rate increased by 1.2 percentage points, while it increased by one percentage point year-on-year.

While BCM fared better than Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (NMB) in the latest jobs stats, recent retrenchments in local firms like Johnson and Johnson will only feature in the next bulletin.

NMB decreased unemployment by 0.6%. These figures do not include recent retrenchments announced by General Motors.

The Eastern Cape is one of the seven provinces that recorded an increase in the unemployment rate year-on-year.

In Q1 of 2016, the province’s unemployment rate stood at 28.6%, but by the end of March this year it had since increased to 32.2%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points.

According to Lehohla, 433000 South Africans started looking for employment in Q1 this year – thus offsetting the gain of 144000 workers who found work during the same period.

Of the 433000, 58% were between the ages of 15 and 34.

Lehohla said quarterly increases in the official unemployment rate were observed in four of the eight metros, with the highest increase being recorded in Tshwane.

“Compared to the first quarter of 2016, Ekurhuleni and NMB recorded the largest decreases in the official unemployment rate at 3.7 and 3.1 percentage points,” said the statistician-general.

Lehohla said while the Eastern Cape recorded the highest increase, it was followed by Limpopo at 2.3 percentage points and KwaZulu-Natal with 1.9 percentage points.

The Northern Cape was the only province that showed a decrease in the official unemployment rate with a decrease of 1.3 percentage points.

He said between the last quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of this year, the expanded unemployment rate increased in four metropolitan municipalities.

“The City of Tshwane recorded the largest quarterly increase of one percentage point, while Buffalo City Metro, which has been down by 3.7 percentage points, recording the largest decline in expanded unemployment rate during the same period.”

His report states that the number of employed persons increased in seven of the nine provinces between the last quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of this year.

“The largest employment gains were observed in Gauteng (81000), Mpumalanga (62000) and Western Cape (21000), while Limpopo and Eastern Cape recorded employment declines of 56000 and 5000, respectively over this period.

“Compared to 2016’s last quarter, the largest increases in employment were observed in five of the nine provinces, with Gauteng (298000), Eastern Cape (76000) and Mpumalanga (57000) recording the highest employment gains.”

Lehohla said between October last year and March 2017, employment levels increased in all metros, “with the exception of the NMB where the number of employed people declined by 7000”.

Labour analyst Terry Bell said that because the stats were compiled before the withdrawal of General Motors in the province the worst was yet to come.

Bell said this was not the “extended definition” of unemployment, but a “very reduced figure”, saying “realistically, the figure could be more than 50%”.

“This is deeply worrying. Something needs to be done very quickly because if we carry on like this, we will end up in a flight to I don’t know where,” said Bell.

Eastern Cape Chamber of Business’s provincial secretary Andile Nontso yesterday said the rate of unemployment in the province was on the rise because government business was given to a few selected individuals, some from outside the province, at the expense of many local small businesses which could have employed many locals.

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