OPINION: Muddle along, take Madiba high road or foster division?

South Africa is fast approaching a political turning point – and there are three scenarios that the ruling ANC is set to take us along.

This is according to Institute for Security Studies researchers Ciara Aucoin and Jakkie Cilliers.

They believe the country’s future rests heavily on the outcome of the public struggle for power between two competing factions within the ANC – “traditionalists” and “reformers”.

They characterise traditionalists as those loyal to President Jacob Zuma‚ “paternalistic insiders‚ currently benefiting from the status quo”.

Reformers on the other hand are urbanites and generally “outsiders‚ vying to gain access to the rich bounty of resources from which they are currently excluded”.

“A number of key milestones between now and 2024 will contribute to raising the political temperature between these two groups‚ and will determine the country’s rate of economic and social progress‚” Aucoin and Cilliers say.

These include the municipal government elections in just over a month’s time‚ a possible international investment rating downgrade at year-end and the election of a new president of the ANC in December 2017.

They forecasts three possible future pathways for the country by 2024.

lBafana Bafana: President Zuma is replaced by a compromise top ANC slate of traditionalists and reformers at the end of 2017.

“Although it will appear to be a big change‚ this will be a balancing act to keep the party united and South Africa muddling along. Under this scenario‚ the ANC goes into the 2019 national/provincial elections with a new but uninspiring team.”

lMandela Magic: A reformist grouping of the ANC takes the party forward.

“With that‚ support for the Economic Freedom Fighters eventually drops off on the understanding that most of the EFF votes were actually protest votes against the current leadership of the ANC. In addition‚ ANC voters considering voting for the DA – particularly in Gauteng – may be persuaded to give a reformed ANC the benefit of the doubt under a revived leadership that echoes Mandela’s vision of a rainbow nation.

“It would not be smooth sailing. The ANC will face internal revolt from those who lose their power and ability to access resources‚ and some within the party will rebel against its more social-democratic policies.”

lNation Divided: “The country will be put on a truly divisive and economically worrying path under either of two conditions.

The first is if the ANC extends Zuma’s mandate as president of the party and the country to 2019 by aligning the term of office of the president of the ANC with that of the president of the country.

The second is if the traditionalists triumph in December 2017 by electing a national executive committee‚ including a top six‚ who continue to support the notion of growth through redistribution.

“Either of these situations would likely see the ANC begin to emulate the populist policies espoused by the EFF‚ and even entering into a coalition with them at various levels.

“The result‚ in time‚ would be a much smaller economy‚ increased levels of social instability and a country that is much poorer than it could have been.”

Summing up‚ Aucoin and Cilliers say that if the traditionalist camp continues to dominate the party and national politics‚ “growth prospects are poor and a weaker economy is likely to further incentivise the recourse to violence and widen the gap between the haves and have-nots”.

They also speculate that if the traditionalists gain the upper hand in December 2017‚ “it is quite likely that the party could again split‚ similar to the events that led to the creation of the Congress of the People and the EFF”.

“If that happens‚ South Africa would enter an unprecedented era of coalition politics at the national level – since it is quite likely that the ANC would then tip to below 50% during the 2019 elections.”