ALTHOUGH the ANC has now perfected the art of showing public unity while being deeply divided, the party is most probably at its most fractious since it came to power in 1994, making it arguably the best moment for a relevant opposition party to take voters from the ANC.
Next year the ANC will reach the 20 year itch of African liberation movements turned governments, when the gap between the bling lifestyle of the leaders and the hardships of ordinary supporters becomes so wide that loyal supporters cannot identify with the party anymore and are willing to vote for other parties.
Usually, at this point the first generation of new voters arrive who never experienced the liberation struggle and who therefore measure the performance of the liberation movement turned government by its record in government only, not the past.
In many other African countries this 20- year post-liberation itch often coincides with a struggling domestic economy: low growth, de-industrialisation and mass job losses. In this scenario, the complacent African liberation movement turned government is often unable to provide the innovative leadership and lacks the persuasive power born from credible management to foster cooperative partnerships between social stakeholders. It also lacks the will to mobilise all the talent available in the country (because of narrow cadre deployment policy). These are the prerequisites to lifting a country out of economic stagnation.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as ANC deputy president has given the party a lifeline, as many of its members and supporters who may have considered leaving, may now stay put, hoping Ramaphosa will take over soon from Jacob Zuma as the ANC and South African president, and that he may make the ANC more accountable and inclusive and less corrupt.
For any opposition party to challenge the ANC, it must appeal to the base supporters of the ANC, the black majority in the townships and rural areas. At the moment, many of the new leaders in the Democratic Alliance, for example, appeal to the black middle classes in the urban areas. To become the new government, the DA must be able to capture the black working class and poor in the townships and rural areas.
The challenge for Ramphela Mamphele, the former World Bank managing director, who has been far away from the grassroots, will be how to expand her reach beyond the urban black and white middle classes and capture the black poor in the townships and rural areas.
Disillusioned ANC voters will not automatically vote for opposition parties – these parties and new ones must first become relevant to these voters.
Most current parliamentary opposition parties are on the political right of the ANC. Yet, most of the mass base ANC supporters are on the centre-left politically and economically, even if many may be socially conservative. In real terms, this means the DA is too far to the right – and appears to lack a social justice focus – to naturally appeal to these mass ANC voters. At the very minimum the DA will have to transform to a United States style Democratic Party, which is currently left- liberal.
The extra-parliamentary opposition on the left of the ANC is so far to the left they are practically irrelevant to many disillusioned ANC supporters.
The fact that the SA Communist Party, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, and associated civil groups – which are on the centre-left align themselves with the ANC, means it is very difficult for new opposition parties to form on the centre-left, unless this tripartite alliance fractures.
The fracturing of the National Union of Mineworkers’, Cosatu’s largest and most influential affiliate, is the first indication that the centre-left of the ANC may now start to fracture on the weight of President Jacob Zuma’s perceived ineffective leadership and the government’s halting delivery of public services and jobs.
The implosion of the Congress of the People meant that people may well be skeptical about new opposition parties – and may wait a while to see if the party is sustainable before committing to support them.
The success of the ANC and the National Party when it was in power was that both were not ordinary political parties, but omnipresent movements.
ANC loyalists often describe the ANC as a “church”, meaning the ANC doesn’t only offer political sustenance but, during its exile years, was almost also a family, schooling and even burying members and supporters.
Currently, the ANC is present in almost every nook and cranny of society: in the affairs of the humblest local village council, sports organisations, and it even organises funerals for members. This means the ANC is almost perceived as part of the everyday life of people. At the height of its power, the National Party was the same.
For opposition parties to be successful, they must achieve the same. They must become part of the everyday lives of the most far-flung communities, and should not spring up during election time only.
Race and what people did during apartheid still matter very much in the way people vote. Any opposition party must therefore be seen to be racially diverse in its power structures and must have a decent amount of leaders who were opposed to apartheid.
The most ideal reconfiguration of SA’s post-apartheid politics would be for the emergence of a credible left-of-centre or workers’ party in the mould of the Brazilian Socialist Party, from the trade unions and civil society. In such a scenario, SA would have a three-way political party system, rather than a two-way one. The ANC will then be challenged from both the centre-left and the centre-right (where most of the current parliamentary opposition parties are located).
The reality is that in spite of the first signs of the possible fragmentation of Cosatu – seen in the fragmentation of the NUM and the SA Transport and Allied Workers Union – a reasonable opposition party of the left coming from the ANC family is not immediately on the cards.
The second best option for SA then is for all the current parliamentary opposition parties to form a grand coalition.
A united opposition will be seen to be more racially inclusive, will have enough activists who were strongly opposed to apartheid in the apartheid era, and may be perceived by disillusioned ANC members as potentially significantly big enough to vote for and that this will not be was ted.
Such a grand coalition will make it difficult for the ANC to target them as white or insignificant. In such a coalition, the opposition parties will retain their identities and leaderships, but fight the election together against the ANC, agreeing among each other in which areas each will stand against the ANC, and supporting one another.
A Mamphele at the head of such a coalition could dramatically change the dynamics of SA’s politics. But a Mamphele at the head of DA would also not be insignificant.
As a former black anti-apartheid activist she would have immediately deflected perceptions that the DA was a party of “white” interests, looking for black votes to secure power.
Although Mamphele, in such a scenario, would have had an immediate established political machine available in the form of the DA, she would still have to work hard to reach across the black middle class to the black working and poor classes. Of course, the reality is that ordinary members and leaders of a party do not take kindly to outsiders being imposed as leaders – the DA is no exception.
If a grand coalition of the opposition does not materialise, and Mamphele does not become the leader of the DA it will be best for her, before she starts a new political party, to gauge her support by identifying one problem which all South Africans – black and white, and middle class and poor – feel strongly should that be addressed, and to use it as a campaign platform to secure at least a million signatures. If she gets enough support – then she could consider the formal launch of an opposition political party.
William Gumede is author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg) and has just completed re-editing Nelson Mandela’s No Easy Walk to Freedom, with a new introduction, comparing Mandela’s generation to the current ANC generation. It will be in the bookstores by April .
Insight: Three opposition options
Next year the ANC will reach the 20 year itch of African liberation movements turned governments, when the gap between the bling lifestyle of the leaders and the hardships of ordinary supporters becomes so wide that loyal supporters cannot identify with the party anymore and are willing to vote for other parties.
Usually, at this point the first generation of new voters arrive who never experienced the liberation struggle and who therefore measure the performance of the liberation movement turned government by its record in government only, not the past.
In many other African countries this 20- year post-liberation itch often coincides with a struggling domestic economy: low growth, de-industrialisation and mass job losses. In this scenario, the complacent African liberation movement turned government is often unable to provide the innovative leadership and lacks the persuasive power born from credible management to foster cooperative partnerships between social stakeholders. It also lacks the will to mobilise all the talent available in the country (because of narrow cadre deployment policy). These are the prerequisites to lifting a country out of economic stagnation.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as ANC deputy president has given the party a lifeline, as many of its members and supporters who may have considered leaving, may now stay put, hoping Ramaphosa will take over soon from Jacob Zuma as the ANC and South African president, and that he may make the ANC more accountable and inclusive and less corrupt.
For any opposition party to challenge the ANC, it must appeal to the base supporters of the ANC, the black majority in the townships and rural areas. At the moment, many of the new leaders in the Democratic Alliance, for example, appeal to the black middle classes in the urban areas. To become the new government, the DA must be able to capture the black working class and poor in the townships and rural areas.
The challenge for Ramphela Mamphele, the former World Bank managing director, who has been far away from the grassroots, will be how to expand her reach beyond the urban black and white middle classes and capture the black poor in the townships and rural areas.
Disillusioned ANC voters will not automatically vote for opposition parties – these parties and new ones must first become relevant to these voters.
Most current parliamentary opposition parties are on the political right of the ANC. Yet, most of the mass base ANC supporters are on the centre-left politically and economically, even if many may be socially conservative. In real terms, this means the DA is too far to the right – and appears to lack a social justice focus – to naturally appeal to these mass ANC voters. At the very minimum the DA will have to transform to a United States style Democratic Party, which is currently left- liberal.
The extra-parliamentary opposition on the left of the ANC is so far to the left they are practically irrelevant to many disillusioned ANC supporters.
The fact that the SA Communist Party, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, and associated civil groups – which are on the centre-left align themselves with the ANC, means it is very difficult for new opposition parties to form on the centre-left, unless this tripartite alliance fractures.
The fracturing of the National Union of Mineworkers’, Cosatu’s largest and most influential affiliate, is the first indication that the centre-left of the ANC may now start to fracture on the weight of President Jacob Zuma’s perceived ineffective leadership and the government’s halting delivery of public services and jobs.
The implosion of the Congress of the People meant that people may well be skeptical about new opposition parties – and may wait a while to see if the party is sustainable before committing to support them.
The success of the ANC and the National Party when it was in power was that both were not ordinary political parties, but omnipresent movements.
ANC loyalists often describe the ANC as a “church”, meaning the ANC doesn’t only offer political sustenance but, during its exile years, was almost also a family, schooling and even burying members and supporters.
Currently, the ANC is present in almost every nook and cranny of society: in the affairs of the humblest local village council, sports organisations, and it even organises funerals for members. This means the ANC is almost perceived as part of the everyday life of people. At the height of its power, the National Party was the same.
For opposition parties to be successful, they must achieve the same. They must become part of the everyday lives of the most far-flung communities, and should not spring up during election time only.
Race and what people did during apartheid still matter very much in the way people vote. Any opposition party must therefore be seen to be racially diverse in its power structures and must have a decent amount of leaders who were opposed to apartheid.
The most ideal reconfiguration of SA’s post-apartheid politics would be for the emergence of a credible left-of-centre or workers’ party in the mould of the Brazilian Socialist Party, from the trade unions and civil society. In such a scenario, SA would have a three-way political party system, rather than a two-way one. The ANC will then be challenged from both the centre-left and the centre-right (where most of the current parliamentary opposition parties are located).
The reality is that in spite of the first signs of the possible fragmentation of Cosatu – seen in the fragmentation of the NUM and the SA Transport and Allied Workers Union – a reasonable opposition party of the left coming from the ANC family is not immediately on the cards.
The second best option for SA then is for all the current parliamentary opposition parties to form a grand coalition.
A united opposition will be seen to be more racially inclusive, will have enough activists who were strongly opposed to apartheid in the apartheid era, and may be perceived by disillusioned ANC members as potentially significantly big enough to vote for and that this will not be was ted.
Such a grand coalition will make it difficult for the ANC to target them as white or insignificant. In such a coalition, the opposition parties will retain their identities and leaderships, but fight the election together against the ANC, agreeing among each other in which areas each will stand against the ANC, and supporting one another.
A Mamphele at the head of such a coalition could dramatically change the dynamics of SA’s politics. But a Mamphele at the head of DA would also not be insignificant.
As a former black anti-apartheid activist she would have immediately deflected perceptions that the DA was a party of “white” interests, looking for black votes to secure power.
Although Mamphele, in such a scenario, would have had an immediate established political machine available in the form of the DA, she would still have to work hard to reach across the black middle class to the black working and poor classes. Of course, the reality is that ordinary members and leaders of a party do not take kindly to outsiders being imposed as leaders – the DA is no exception.
If a grand coalition of the opposition does not materialise, and Mamphele does not become the leader of the DA it will be best for her, before she starts a new political party, to gauge her support by identifying one problem which all South Africans – black and white, and middle class and poor – feel strongly should that be addressed, and to use it as a campaign platform to secure at least a million signatures. If she gets enough support – then she could consider the formal launch of an opposition political party.
William Gumede is author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg) and has just completed re-editing Nelson Mandela’s No Easy Walk to Freedom, with a new introduction, comparing Mandela’s generation to the current ANC generation. It will be in the bookstores by April .
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