THE detailed data flowing from the 2011 Census released earlier this week will probably have done little more than provide statistical support for what Eastern Cape Premier Noxolo Kiviet’s administration would have already known.
Most specifically, it would have demonstrated the continuing gulf between east and west and the results of unequal development in the Eastern Cape.
The average household income in Cacadu, for example, was R76250 in 2011 and in Nelson Mandela Bay R105602. In Amathole the average household income was R39476 and in Alfred Nzo R37147.
One suspects that disparity will increase, given the investment flowing not only into the Coega Industrial Development Zone (IDZ) and the billions of rand being spent, particularly by Transnet, but also into the Sunday’s River Valley where the expansion of citrus operations is significant.
A positive record of decision was issued earlier this year for the expansion of two existing citrus farms and the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for a third new operation covering 90 hectares has now been initiated.
It is therefore hardly a surprise that while the area to the west of the Fish River recorded strong average annual population growth over the decade between 2001 and 2011, some parts to the east saw negative average annual growth, while others were barely in positive territory.
The average annual population growth in Nelson Mandela Bay, for example, at 1.36%, was almost double the 0.69% recorded by Buffalo City.
Cacadu reflected annual average population growth of 1.49% between 2001 and 2011, with Kouga (3.22%) and Sundays River Valley (2.16%) municipal areas having the highest figures in the province. Against that, Amathole reflected negative growth of 0.82% over the same period and Chris Hani 0.06%.
The other three district municipalities in the former Transkei were in positive territory, but the highest in OR Tambo was only 0.73%, just under half the population growth recorded in Cacadu.
The rural-urban migration will no doubt continue for as long as, on the one hand, the streets of the Coega IDZ are believed to be “paved with gold,” and on the other, underdevelopment continues in the former homelands.
(Should a decision be taken to proceed with Project Mthombo, the multi-billion rand oil refinery in the Coega IDZ and Nuclear 1 at Thyspunt in the Kouga Municipality, the streets will no doubt glitter even more brightly.)
While StatsSA has cautioned about the comparative use of the unemployment figures in the data, the statistics for 2011 are instructive in that they reveal that the unemployment rate in Cacadu is put at 24.9%, as against the 43.1% in Amathole, 44.4% in OR Tambo and 43.6% in Alfred Nzo.
In fairness, one must point out that the unemployment rate has declined across the province since the first census in 1996, with the exception of Nelson Mandela Bay, which increased marginally from 36.3% to 36.6%. This very probably points to the flow of people into the area and why, as former Port Elizabeth mayor Nceba Faku noted on one occasion, it was so difficult to provide reliable information on, for example, the housing shortage in the metro.
The decline in the unemployment rate may also to some extent be attributed to the exclusion from the statistics of those described somewhat euphemistically as “discouraged work seekers”.
It would be incorrect to suggest that the eastern part of the province that bore the brunt of the homeland policy is simply being ignored.
The efforts being made to transform Mthatha into a gateway into that part of the Eastern Cape are laudable, although as transport MEC Thandiswa Marawu pointed out in her policy speech this year, funding continues to be a challenge.
The lack of the necessary funding is also the reason why construction of the Wild Coast Meander has to be spread over a number of years rather than being completed as quickly as possible, so making the Wild Coast area more accessible.
Nor can the provincial government be blamed for the fact that the N2 Wild Coast Road is stalled as a result of a legal challenge.
The declaration of the Wild Coast as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) would also be a significant step forward but as yet there are no time-frames for when this will happen, with the legislation still to complete the parliamentary process.
Feasibility studies will also have to be conducted before a decision is taken on which of the 10 SEZ applications from the provinces will be selected.
One can point, as well, to the significant increase in the number of households in the Eastern Cape using electricity between 1996 and 2011.
The figures show that:
• Between 1996 and 2011, the number of households using electricity for lighting purposes increased from 421952 to 1265759 in 2011 – more than half were in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.
• Over the same period, the number of households in the Eastern Cape using electricity for cooking increased from 309362 to 1 047 718 in 2011 – all but 97197 were in the two metros.
The challenge that remains, however, is how to drive economic growth and create jobs in the former Transkei and Ciskei homelands, where two-thirds of the population lives and where, as Economic development, environmental affairs and tourism MEC Mcebisi Jonas pointed out recently, conditions for private sector investment “are not (and never have been) conducive”.
The only available avenue would appear to lie in agriculture and agro- processing, and as Jonas noted, new investments in the Coega and East London IDZs in bio-fuels “provide ready markets for primary feedstock”.
He pointed to the need for a “big focus” on agro-processing and “better government support for large-scale agriculture”.
What is required is the drive to pursue a goal, the end result of which will be far greater equality of development across the province; the creation of employment and entrepreneurial opportunities and critically, a reduction in the number of those dependent on welfare or who remain reliant on the benefits flowing from the indigent policies of local authorities.
That in turn will inevitably free up resources that can be redirected to meeting the infrastructure challenges.
The potential is unquestioned – all that is needed is the political drive.
Patrick Cull is a journalist based in the Eastern Cape
Insight: Equality of development needed across province
Most specifically, it would have demonstrated the continuing gulf between east and west and the results of unequal development in the Eastern Cape.
The average household income in Cacadu, for example, was R76250 in 2011 and in Nelson Mandela Bay R105602. In Amathole the average household income was R39476 and in Alfred Nzo R37147.
One suspects that disparity will increase, given the investment flowing not only into the Coega Industrial Development Zone (IDZ) and the billions of rand being spent, particularly by Transnet, but also into the Sunday’s River Valley where the expansion of citrus operations is significant.
A positive record of decision was issued earlier this year for the expansion of two existing citrus farms and the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for a third new operation covering 90 hectares has now been initiated.
It is therefore hardly a surprise that while the area to the west of the Fish River recorded strong average annual population growth over the decade between 2001 and 2011, some parts to the east saw negative average annual growth, while others were barely in positive territory.
The average annual population growth in Nelson Mandela Bay, for example, at 1.36%, was almost double the 0.69% recorded by Buffalo City.
Cacadu reflected annual average population growth of 1.49% between 2001 and 2011, with Kouga (3.22%) and Sundays River Valley (2.16%) municipal areas having the highest figures in the province. Against that, Amathole reflected negative growth of 0.82% over the same period and Chris Hani 0.06%.
The other three district municipalities in the former Transkei were in positive territory, but the highest in OR Tambo was only 0.73%, just under half the population growth recorded in Cacadu.
The rural-urban migration will no doubt continue for as long as, on the one hand, the streets of the Coega IDZ are believed to be “paved with gold,” and on the other, underdevelopment continues in the former homelands.
(Should a decision be taken to proceed with Project Mthombo, the multi-billion rand oil refinery in the Coega IDZ and Nuclear 1 at Thyspunt in the Kouga Municipality, the streets will no doubt glitter even more brightly.)
While StatsSA has cautioned about the comparative use of the unemployment figures in the data, the statistics for 2011 are instructive in that they reveal that the unemployment rate in Cacadu is put at 24.9%, as against the 43.1% in Amathole, 44.4% in OR Tambo and 43.6% in Alfred Nzo.
In fairness, one must point out that the unemployment rate has declined across the province since the first census in 1996, with the exception of Nelson Mandela Bay, which increased marginally from 36.3% to 36.6%. This very probably points to the flow of people into the area and why, as former Port Elizabeth mayor Nceba Faku noted on one occasion, it was so difficult to provide reliable information on, for example, the housing shortage in the metro.
The decline in the unemployment rate may also to some extent be attributed to the exclusion from the statistics of those described somewhat euphemistically as “discouraged work seekers”.
It would be incorrect to suggest that the eastern part of the province that bore the brunt of the homeland policy is simply being ignored.
The efforts being made to transform Mthatha into a gateway into that part of the Eastern Cape are laudable, although as transport MEC Thandiswa Marawu pointed out in her policy speech this year, funding continues to be a challenge.
The lack of the necessary funding is also the reason why construction of the Wild Coast Meander has to be spread over a number of years rather than being completed as quickly as possible, so making the Wild Coast area more accessible.
Nor can the provincial government be blamed for the fact that the N2 Wild Coast Road is stalled as a result of a legal challenge.
The declaration of the Wild Coast as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) would also be a significant step forward but as yet there are no time-frames for when this will happen, with the legislation still to complete the parliamentary process.
Feasibility studies will also have to be conducted before a decision is taken on which of the 10 SEZ applications from the provinces will be selected.
One can point, as well, to the significant increase in the number of households in the Eastern Cape using electricity between 1996 and 2011.
The figures show that:
• Between 1996 and 2011, the number of households using electricity for lighting purposes increased from 421952 to 1265759 in 2011 – more than half were in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.
• Over the same period, the number of households in the Eastern Cape using electricity for cooking increased from 309362 to 1 047 718 in 2011 – all but 97197 were in the two metros.
The challenge that remains, however, is how to drive economic growth and create jobs in the former Transkei and Ciskei homelands, where two-thirds of the population lives and where, as Economic development, environmental affairs and tourism MEC Mcebisi Jonas pointed out recently, conditions for private sector investment “are not (and never have been) conducive”.
The only available avenue would appear to lie in agriculture and agro- processing, and as Jonas noted, new investments in the Coega and East London IDZs in bio-fuels “provide ready markets for primary feedstock”.
He pointed to the need for a “big focus” on agro-processing and “better government support for large-scale agriculture”.
What is required is the drive to pursue a goal, the end result of which will be far greater equality of development across the province; the creation of employment and entrepreneurial opportunities and critically, a reduction in the number of those dependent on welfare or who remain reliant on the benefits flowing from the indigent policies of local authorities.
That in turn will inevitably free up resources that can be redirected to meeting the infrastructure challenges.
The potential is unquestioned – all that is needed is the political drive.
Patrick Cull is a journalist based in the Eastern Cape
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