At what point will ANC stop defending Zuma

THE speculation about whether President Jacob Zuma would finish his second term started long before the May general election.

Most of it centred on the view that he had become a liability to the ANC. There was even a time before the election when some in the ruling party had become partial to the sentiment that the ANC, to avoid electoral losses, had to consider having someone other than Zuma as its presidential candidate.

Obviously, this option was a non-option for most in the leadership of the ANC. This idea was kicked into touch by Luthuli House when the ANC in Gauteng proposed that former president Thabo Mbeki should be the face of the Gauteng ANC campaign to stem the tide of black middle-class votes to opposition parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA).

In the months since the May election, the image crisis of the president has deepened and, with it, antipathy towards him has probably worsened in some sections of the South African citizenry.

For many South Africans, the Zuma presidency has become nothing but notes on a scandal-prone head of state. And to aver that Zuma is under siege may be an understatement of gargantuan proportions. His former disciples, some of whom are now in the EFF, seem intent on portraying him as the face of things venal in this country.

The Pay Back the (Nkandla) Money parliamentary offensive is destined to widen beyond the EFF, the content of the spy tapes might turn out to be music to the DA but something as atonal as a Karlheinz Stockhausen composition to Zuma, and the Nkandla scandal seems to be feeding into a campaign, in its nascent stage of political development, to downgrade the president to the status of an ordinary resident of Kwadakwadunuse in Nkandla.

For those of us whose Zulu is on the limited side, Kwadakwadunuse, loosely translated, means a place where people get drunk and bend over to expose their buttocks.

Maybe the public protector should investigate whether this is what happens when politicians become power drunk.

As for the ANC and the vitriol it has sent flying in the direction of the public protector’s nose, it must remember that in Xhosa we say that isisila senkukhu sibonwa mhla liqguthayo — the well-hidden bum of a chicken becomes visible when a gusty wind is blowing.

However, the EFF wind is the least of the problems facing the ANC.

Last week, Talk Radio 702 host John Robbie beseeched the president to leave for Ireland and never come back. In response, the ANC may be tempted to refer to Zuma critics as windbags but the ruling party must still have a serious discussion about the point at which it must stop defending Zuma.

In this regard, what we must remember is that the election of a president is also about the ascendance of a particular set of personal, political, regional and economic interests.

The political choice to defend Zuma in the face of mounting criticism is not always about the president.

There are times when it is about the preservation of regional, personal and factional interests, as well as the protection of patronage networks.

The defence of Zuma by the leadership of the ANC is also about the fact that it still needs to stumble on a solution to the Cyril Ramaphosa conundrum.

Given the fact that the health of the president has become one of the most unstable variables in South African politics, how will the ANC manage the Ramaphosa question as the interests I have referred to above may come under some threat if the deputy president were to step up before the next election?

But the ANC may be faced with a challenge of a different kind in the months to come.

We should not rule out the possibility that the antipathy of the EFF and the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa coalition towards Zuma may become part of a broader movement for his removal as head of state.

So, is Zuma returning from Russia with love to face a political storm that may be gathering momentum and strength?

Aubrey Matshiqi is an independent political analyst