Zuma must retain control of ANC to stay out of jail

“IZINTO zizoshintsha!” proclaimed a beaming Jacob Zuma. He had just taken the oath for a second presidential term and was addressing an equally excited crowd gathered on the cheap seats. Unlike the measured and dry speech he had delivered earlier to the respectable audience, he was now forthright, promising drastic changes.

The second term, Zuma reassured the expectant masses, would be dramatically different to the first.

Today Zuma’s administration is just a few days beyond the 100-day mark, into the time when the administration is meant to define its policy agenda and character. Is everything that has happened so far pointing towards a significantly different second term?

The answer is mixed. Policy declarations and some appointments signal a new beginning, but the character of leadership remains largely unchanged. And, the latter may stifle the former in making this term even worse than the first, not only for the party, but for the republic.

It’s too early to say whether Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene will make any telling impact at Treasury, which requires that one should make tough decisions and risk being unpopular amongst colleagues. But local government, housing, education, land and health may see some improvements.

Minister of Science and Technology Naledi Pandor and Minister of Home Affairs Malusi Gigaba would have added greater value to different portfolios where new challenges would have made them more energetic and creative. But, their return to their old portfolios gives us confidence that standards will not drop in those areas.

Thulas Nxesi’s retention at Public Works may just yield a notable drop in corruption. Nkandlagate slowed Nxesi’s momentum but his zeal to combat abuse of state assets appears undiluted.

That said, individual potential thrives in an ideal political context. The present context is not ideal. And this is where the second term resembles the first. So far we seem headed for a rerun of the last term. The hostility against the office of the public protector has not only been rekindled, but seems intent on inciting violence against Thuli Madonsela.

Deputy Defence Minister Kebby Maphatsoe even boldly proclaimed that Madonsela was an American Central Intelligence Agency spy. This old tactic was employed in the anti-apartheid struggle. The idea was to delegitimise a person in order to justify a violent attack. Victims were often burnt to death.

Of course, one can’t imagine a deputy-minister wishing another public official death by fire, but Maphatsoe clearly wishes Madonsela ill-will.

Given the ease with which Madonsela has been attacked it could also be that the deputy-minister thinks notoriety will gain him a promotion to full-minister. Why else would any right-minded individual launch such a vicious attack on another decent human being if not for personal gain?

You’d be forgiven for thinking we never even had an election. This is exactly what happened in the first term. Now notoriety is being taken to a different level.

Meanwhile the spy tapes controversy refuses to go away. The DA appears intent on getting the court to reinstate the corruption charges against Zuma. They believe that insinuation of political interference in the investigation did not exonerate Zuma from allegations of accepting a bribe. He must answer in court whether or not he got a bribe, especially because Shabir Shaik was convicted of facilitating the bribery.

And, our president is not a stranger to the courts. The last time he stood in the dock, the courts suffered a vicious attack as “forces of a counter-revolution”.

It’s not clear if Luthuli House still believes judges are part of dark forces plotting to bring down the revolution. But headquarters does strongly believe that whoever wants to hold the president accountable for his actions can only be motivated by malice. So, don’t be surprised if the mob is unleashed against the courts – again!

The president’s woes needn’t necessarily derail government. He will certainly be distracted, but he has a capable deputy. That Cyril Ramaphosa has been serving in an executive position in the last few years also stands him in good stead to steer cabinet. His mind is accustomed to processing voluminous amounts of information and taking tough decisions. There’s no reason therefore, for government to stall whilst the president is away in court – again!

That said, it is not possible for ministers to remain unaffected by their boss’s travails. After all, Zuma will still remain their boss, even though he may be dealing with legal problems. This means he can still fire his appointees, especially those he feels are not entirely supportive of him. And, the president doesn’t mind reshuffling cabinet.

To escape the axe some ministers may seek to ingratiate themselves with the president. This takes different forms including people who are usually decent, behaving strangely and saying the most stupid things.

We’re due for a series of these obtuse performances – again!

Fawning ministers also tend to be insecure. A besieged president is prone to be suspicious of the loyalty of his ministers. And the ministers are likely to sense that, which will heighten their insecurity. That in turn saps self-confidence, which impacts on performance.

Even more ominous for the governing party is that the reinstatement of charges raises the possibility of Zuma serving jail-time. No-one wants to go to prison, especially when you’ve been there before and you were once president of a country.

Part of avoiding incarceration involves retaining a strong grip over the ANC, even after 2017, when a new party leadership is elected. This would guarantee Zuma some bargaining power, assuming he is convicted. Maintaining that kind of influence over the ANC requires Zuma to not only influence his succession, but also the composition of the national executive committee (NEC). Remember the ANC turned on president Thabo Mbeki once he lost numbers in the NEC.

So, the ANC is heading for a bitter succession battle. Zuma’s continuing freedom depends on it, whilst his detractors believe the renewal of the party and the return of credibility to the presidency starts with his exit. They’re determined to rid the party of his influence, just as he is to maintain it.

The battle could even become more ugly because of the president’s security-mindedness. He is effectively running both the police and the intelligence and there’s a reason for that.

But, this was inevitable. This presidency was defective from the onset. Its manner of conception prefigured this moment. It was conceived through strangulation of institutions and evasion of the law. Unfortunately for Zuma and the ANC, despite their “counter-revolutionary” shenanigans, our democracy has remained functional. Judges have stayed true to the law, the media continues to speak freely and political opposition insists on accountability.

Democracy requires constant work, however. Institutions are not automated, but steered by conscious individual action. It starts with sensible appointments.

Mcebisi Ndletyana is head of the political economy faculty at Mistra