Local government has truly changed. The difference is not only in the distribution of power throughout the various councils, but the manner of governance is poised for a similarly drastic change in the next five years.
For instance, 27 municipalities will be run by either a coalition or a minority government.
The Western Cape has the highest number with eight, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at seven, then Gauteng at four. Free State will have the least number of coalitions with only one, Metshimaholo municipality.
Coalitions yield contradictory results. The upside is that they militate against complacency.
Fear of voters dumping them for other parties, applies pressure on incumbents to perform optimally. The result is good governance, and the electorate benefits immensely. But, that’s just one side.
The downside is that they’re also prone to instability. It just takes one vote switching to the other party for government to collapse. An abstention can also grind government to a halt.
Western Cape’s Worcester and Oudtshoorn municipalities, among others, had that problem. Budget couldn’t be passed and the municipality just didn’t function.
This time around, however, the Democratic Alliance seems unlikely to experience instability in the Western Cape. Of the nine municipalities where there isn’t a clear winner, they’re already in a coalition with small parties in six of them. The ANC has a coalition in the other two. Where there’s a lack of coalitions, however, the next five years are likely to be rocky.
This is likely to be the case especially where the EFF won seats that can sway the balance of power. There are about 12 such municipalities, most of which are, interestingly, located in the far-flung parts of KwaZulu-Natal such as Jozini, Mtubatuba, Abaqulisi, Nquthu and Endumeni.
The EFF will support the IFP, and perhaps the cordial relations may preempt volatility yielding a relatively smooth government.
What of the decision the EFF has taken? That is, it will not be part of the coalition government, but only vote as and when issues are tabled in council. It is the best of available options.
Being a speaker or member of the mayoral executive under a DA mayor wouldn’t have been in keeping with their revolutionary posture. Another option was, in exchange for support elsewhere, demanding being government in the municipalities where they’re largest among opposition parties, such as in Rustenburg and Thabazimbi.
This would have given the EFF an opportunity to showcase how it governs, the same way the DA has done with Cape Town, where it initially won.
It may well be the EFF is not ready to divide its attention between opposition and government. Being in government would require a re-definition of the party’s narrative, which would entail accounting for possible governance failures. That’s complicated. It would fudge the party’s image, and possibly slow its upward trajectory.
Remaining in opposition is easier and works for the EFF. Its narrative is clear and consistent. That it declined positions and perks makes their revolutionary claims somewhat authentic. Theirs “is not a party of patronage”, Julius Malema thundered on Wednesday afternoon. This is admirable.
It’s a commitment to activism. But, it must still be demonstrated. The people are watching ... .
Restoring activism in our community will give the EFF sustainability and revive the civic spirit. Because patronage is frowned upon, this lessens the possibility of infighting, while increasing internal stability. Communities come alive and confront common problems.
That’s how life was in the townships at the height of the anti-apartheid struggle.
If the EFF succeeds in restoring this tradition in black life, its standing will most likely improve in the estimation of black folks. That said, municipal governance is unlikely to go smoothly where the DA leads a minority government.
The EFF holds a dim view of the DA. The latter represents everything the EFF abhors: white privilege and free-market.
This is what makes the EFF’s intention to vote for the DA seem strange, at least on the surface. In reality, though, the EFF never seriously considered voting for the ANC. This became clear from the moment the party made demands it knew the ANC wouldn’t meet.
These included the dismissal of President Jacob Zuma, nationalisation and the expropriation of land without compensation. Most ANC leaders benefit from Zuma’s presidency, hence they’ve repeatedly refused to recall him. Nationalisation and taking back land from whites without compensation has a nice radical tone to them, but is imprudent.
In other words, the EFF was always going to deal with the DA. The talks with the ANC were simply a charade meant to provide the EFF with a pretext to shun them for an arrangement with the DA.
The party couldn’t eagerly put the DA into office without losing face. Now the EFF can claim that it was forced into working with the DA because the ANC declined its demands. The DA is “the better of the two devils”, Malema tells us.
Government is likely to be rocky in Joburg and Tshwane. The DA will require the EFF’s consent for any issue that needs majority support to pass. If the EFF doesn’t agree – nothing happens.
This may be a very effective leverage for the EFF to get concessions from the DA. It will use it to maximum effect in order to distinguish itself from the DA and take something back to the voters in 2019 as a result of its opposition work.
A lot of creativity will be required of the DA to avoid collapsing government. They may just go along with the EFF’s demands to prioritise the poor. Pro-poor programmes will also benefit the DA. It could be difficult for the EFF to claim sole credit for improvements in townships. That may tempt the EFF to up the ante – making demands the DA cannot meet in order to validate its claims that the DA is “anti-black”. The outcome of the next five years is uncertain.
That uncertainty applies to the ANC too. I doubt they’ll rebuild themselves.
The party is distracted and inwardly focused. It’s not thinking about renewal, but is consumed with protecting its president and about who succeeds him. The entire party machinery will be rallied behind Zuma in his court case when it finally starts. Everything ugly about the ANC will come out.
Zuma’s acolytes may win the party’s elective conference in December next year, but will lose the country in 2019. They’ll inherit a party without a country to run.
Unless something changes drastically, this is the beginning of the end for the ANC.
Mcebisi Ndletyana is an associate professor of politics, based at the Institute of Pan African Thought and Conversation, University of Johannesburg.
Outcome of coalitions remain to be seen
For instance, 27 municipalities will be run by either a coalition or a minority government.
The Western Cape has the highest number with eight, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at seven, then Gauteng at four. Free State will have the least number of coalitions with only one, Metshimaholo municipality.
Coalitions yield contradictory results. The upside is that they militate against complacency.
Fear of voters dumping them for other parties, applies pressure on incumbents to perform optimally. The result is good governance, and the electorate benefits immensely. But, that’s just one side.
The downside is that they’re also prone to instability. It just takes one vote switching to the other party for government to collapse. An abstention can also grind government to a halt.
Western Cape’s Worcester and Oudtshoorn municipalities, among others, had that problem. Budget couldn’t be passed and the municipality just didn’t function.
This time around, however, the Democratic Alliance seems unlikely to experience instability in the Western Cape. Of the nine municipalities where there isn’t a clear winner, they’re already in a coalition with small parties in six of them. The ANC has a coalition in the other two. Where there’s a lack of coalitions, however, the next five years are likely to be rocky.
This is likely to be the case especially where the EFF won seats that can sway the balance of power. There are about 12 such municipalities, most of which are, interestingly, located in the far-flung parts of KwaZulu-Natal such as Jozini, Mtubatuba, Abaqulisi, Nquthu and Endumeni.
The EFF will support the IFP, and perhaps the cordial relations may preempt volatility yielding a relatively smooth government.
What of the decision the EFF has taken? That is, it will not be part of the coalition government, but only vote as and when issues are tabled in council. It is the best of available options.
Being a speaker or member of the mayoral executive under a DA mayor wouldn’t have been in keeping with their revolutionary posture. Another option was, in exchange for support elsewhere, demanding being government in the municipalities where they’re largest among opposition parties, such as in Rustenburg and Thabazimbi.
This would have given the EFF an opportunity to showcase how it governs, the same way the DA has done with Cape Town, where it initially won.
It may well be the EFF is not ready to divide its attention between opposition and government. Being in government would require a re-definition of the party’s narrative, which would entail accounting for possible governance failures. That’s complicated. It would fudge the party’s image, and possibly slow its upward trajectory.
Remaining in opposition is easier and works for the EFF. Its narrative is clear and consistent. That it declined positions and perks makes their revolutionary claims somewhat authentic. Theirs “is not a party of patronage”, Julius Malema thundered on Wednesday afternoon. This is admirable.
It’s a commitment to activism. But, it must still be demonstrated. The people are watching ... .
Restoring activism in our community will give the EFF sustainability and revive the civic spirit. Because patronage is frowned upon, this lessens the possibility of infighting, while increasing internal stability. Communities come alive and confront common problems.
That’s how life was in the townships at the height of the anti-apartheid struggle.
If the EFF succeeds in restoring this tradition in black life, its standing will most likely improve in the estimation of black folks. That said, municipal governance is unlikely to go smoothly where the DA leads a minority government.
The EFF holds a dim view of the DA. The latter represents everything the EFF abhors: white privilege and free-market.
This is what makes the EFF’s intention to vote for the DA seem strange, at least on the surface. In reality, though, the EFF never seriously considered voting for the ANC. This became clear from the moment the party made demands it knew the ANC wouldn’t meet.
These included the dismissal of President Jacob Zuma, nationalisation and the expropriation of land without compensation. Most ANC leaders benefit from Zuma’s presidency, hence they’ve repeatedly refused to recall him. Nationalisation and taking back land from whites without compensation has a nice radical tone to them, but is imprudent.
In other words, the EFF was always going to deal with the DA. The talks with the ANC were simply a charade meant to provide the EFF with a pretext to shun them for an arrangement with the DA.
The party couldn’t eagerly put the DA into office without losing face. Now the EFF can claim that it was forced into working with the DA because the ANC declined its demands. The DA is “the better of the two devils”, Malema tells us.
Government is likely to be rocky in Joburg and Tshwane. The DA will require the EFF’s consent for any issue that needs majority support to pass. If the EFF doesn’t agree – nothing happens.
This may be a very effective leverage for the EFF to get concessions from the DA. It will use it to maximum effect in order to distinguish itself from the DA and take something back to the voters in 2019 as a result of its opposition work.
A lot of creativity will be required of the DA to avoid collapsing government. They may just go along with the EFF’s demands to prioritise the poor. Pro-poor programmes will also benefit the DA. It could be difficult for the EFF to claim sole credit for improvements in townships. That may tempt the EFF to up the ante – making demands the DA cannot meet in order to validate its claims that the DA is “anti-black”. The outcome of the next five years is uncertain.
That uncertainty applies to the ANC too. I doubt they’ll rebuild themselves.
The party is distracted and inwardly focused. It’s not thinking about renewal, but is consumed with protecting its president and about who succeeds him. The entire party machinery will be rallied behind Zuma in his court case when it finally starts. Everything ugly about the ANC will come out.
Zuma’s acolytes may win the party’s elective conference in December next year, but will lose the country in 2019. They’ll inherit a party without a country to run.
Unless something changes drastically, this is the beginning of the end for the ANC.
Mcebisi Ndletyana is an associate professor of politics, based at the Institute of Pan African Thought and Conversation, University of Johannesburg.
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