I write to you from the year 2025 and from one of South Africa’s possible futures. I must stress it is an unlikely future, one premised on President Jacob Zuma and his cronies defeating the constitutional state and turning SA into an autocracy. But it is, I’m afraid, quite possible.
Here goes: The events depicted below appear to have followed one another at breakneck speed. In reality, it seemed to happen painfully slowly, as if we were living through a dream. There were advances and reverses for the Zuma faction and its triumph over the constitutional order was always contested.
It has been six years since the 2019 election, now sombrely referred to as “the last democratic election”, although many believe it was rigged from start to finish.
To get to grips with these last tumultuous years, we need to go back to the end of 2017, when the ANC held its elective conference. It was a raucous affair – not unlike the Polokwane conference at which Zuma defeated President Thabo Mbeki.
Actually, we need to go a little further back. The months preceding the conference were pretty hectic. The “Save South Africa” movement, supported by ANC veterans and a range of civic organisations, had gained momentum. The opposition appeared to be gaining and there was talk of a “purple” alliance (a mixture of DA blue and EFF red) that would govern if the ANC failed to reach a 50% majority in the national election.
At first, Zuma tolerated the “silent protests” and the opposition’s growing talk of his autocratic reach, but that soon changed. The first arrests were greeted with incredulity and with a raft of constitutional challenges. There were amazing scenes in court and on the streets as the protests grew.
The voices rising in opposition had grown exponentially since the second ratings downgrade in early 2017, with trade unions at the forefront as jobs began to be lost and the economy entered recession.
Government’s revenue began to dry up as tax collection came in way below expectations. The Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, stepped down, citing “severe emotional pressure” after his pre-dawn arrest and detention on charges which have yet to be made public. His trial is now in its seventh year after endless postponements and “trials within a trial”.
It has not helped that the new national director of public prosecutions (the fourth since 2016) announced he was going to “clean up politics and restore its dignity”.
On the campuses, the announcement that government had no more funds for student loans led to further unrest, although everyone now knows the state intelligence agencies had several prominent student leaders on their payrolls from the start.
The media has never recovered from the withdrawal of all government advertising from “organs of the enemy” and the strictures of the revived media tribunal. This, coupled with the Gupta-led takeover of Independent Media has led to a great silence in the open public discourse as the outrages mount.
The new finance minister announced cuts to social spending and that government was “re-prioritising” its budget to deal with a heightened threat from “white monopoly capital”, which Zuma has described as being funded by “the CIA”.
Citing mass unemployment, Zuma allocated billions to new jobs for what have come to be known as “start-ups”, a term used to describe the rapidly growing number of briefly trained, low-skilled recruits into the police and army that were deployed to “bring order to the situation”. Equipped with riot shields and green and gold uniforms (the opposition was outraged at the choice of colour), the Mandela Battalion, to use its official name, made news after severe beatings and the claimed “disappearances” of protest leaders.
In their strongest criticism of Zuma yet, several ANC “top-six” leaders, including Gwede Mantashe and Cyril Ramaphosa, called on him to rein in his security ministers and stop the slide of South Africa towards repression. Zuma’s refusal to meet Save South Africa or to negotiate with the student movement was leading to growing anarchy, they warned.
But the ANC continued to formally back Zuma, saying he remained their leader until he was replaced by a party conference.
Zuma declared in June 2017 that the country was “entering a crisis” and that he had established a new “security and stability” structure which consisted of security ministers, intelligence bosses and officers from the police and SADF. It was, by now, widely known that “Russian advisors” were working to bolster SA’s intelligence and cyber-intelligence capabilities. Evidence had emerged, he said, of a sophisticated underground operation which sought to destabilise the country so that it could be captured by white monopoly capital – now the centrepiece of every government minister’s speech. A constitutional court challenge was mounted, but has never been heard. I will explain why shortly.
In an extraordinary step, the public protector announced a major probe into the plot to destabilise South Africa – after an official complaint was lodged by the intelligence minister. She appealed to Zuma for funding and he agreed, adding that he had offered the “full resources of our intelligence capacity” to assist with the probe.
The hearings would take place in public “in the interest of transparency”, the public protector said. Gordhan, a list of “implicated journalists” and several other prominent public officials were subpoenaed to testify as the hearings began at Gallagher Estate in Midrand.
The proceedings were carried live on television, with the SABC providing a running commentary by a panel of “state capture experts”. The broadcasts were decried as propaganda and the clamour grew as several journalists covering the hearings were placed on the witness list after they criticised proceedings.
Zuma received a petition signed by more than half of the ANC’s NEC asking him to stay on beyond the 2017 elective conference because the party was at risk of splitting. It had the support of several provinces, the women’s, youth and veterans structures and a list of businessmen. Zuma announced that he would not stay on, but thanked the signatories for their support.
Ramaphosa announced he would stand against Zuma at the conference and was supported by Mantashe and several other high-profile ANC heavyweights. Not long thereafter, it was revealed the the Hawks had reopened the Marikana case after “new evidence” emerged connecting Ramaphosa to the killings.
You’ve probably worked out what happened next. On the raucous opening day of its conference, the ANC accepted the nomination of Zuma for a third term as ANC president. Ramaphosa was unable to address the conference as crowds of pro-Zuma supporters chanted “Killer! Killer!” whenever he attempted to speak.
The presence of the green and gold-jacketed “start-ups” caused controversy and it soon became apparent why. They removed “unruly elements” who turned out to be delegates from the provinces opposed to Zuma’s continued rule.
Citing ANC history, which allowed that when circumstances made it impossible for an election to be conducted the incumbent should continue until a suitable time and place could be found, Zuma suspended the conference after several speeches calling on him to remain in power.
The conference was rescheduled for 2021, by which time most of those opposing Zuma had left to join opposition parties or movements. It goes without saying that Zuma, who had by then taken to wearing an army jacket without insignia, was elected unopposed.
Two days later, at a “celebratory rally” in Durban, Zuma made his “moment of truth” speech. By then, the country was in foment, with protesters taking to the streets in their thousands to condemn the continuation of Zuma’s rule. The “start-ups”, now wielding shotguns, were also out in force.
“South Africa’s moment of truth has arrived,” Zuma said. “We allowed white monopoly capital and foreign powers to run this country after democracy because we wanted peace, stability and investment. We do not have peace. We do not have stability. We do not have investment.
“Instead, we have chaos, organised chaos that is trying to turn our country into a basket case.”
Then came the bombshell: “Today I received the report of the public protector into the enemies of the state that are trying to destroy our country. You won’t believe what is going on. I am talking about many prominent people who are working against stability. I have instructed the justice minister to see to it that these people are brought to trial. I bring you the very bad news that among them are judges from the highest courts in the land who have been found to be in the pay of foreign powers.
“We cannot accept this breakdown in law and order any longer. From midnight tonight, a nationwide state of emergency is in effect.”
That night, the repression began in earnest. By dawn, about 187 people were dead and a further 1200 had been arrested under emergency regulations.
International outrage grew, but not from the major powers. Russia’s Vladimir Putin backed Zuma. France’s right-wing government, the recent beneficiary of a major arms purchase by SA, said it understood why the actions had been taken. Turkey sent a message of support. China remained silent. In the US, the scene of widespread “Love trumps hate” protests for several years, events in SA were barely noticed.
When Zuma announced the “temporary” suspension of the Constitutional Court “while investigations into certain judges are under way”, few were surprised. Stunned into silence by the arrest of their colleagues, several top members of the ANC who had opposed Zuma fled to Botswana and then flew to other destinations.
Today, the JSE trades at 8% of its 2017 value and load-shedding is a daily occurrence as the nuclear build runs three years behind schedule. The lights have been out for years now after Eskom ran out of money to finance its fuel stocks. In most of Johannesburg and Pretoria, water rationing has been in effect for years.
Well, that’s where we stand.
Yours
Ray Hartley
Sun City (the prison)
It is 2025 and JZ is still in power
Here goes: The events depicted below appear to have followed one another at breakneck speed. In reality, it seemed to happen painfully slowly, as if we were living through a dream. There were advances and reverses for the Zuma faction and its triumph over the constitutional order was always contested.
It has been six years since the 2019 election, now sombrely referred to as “the last democratic election”, although many believe it was rigged from start to finish.
To get to grips with these last tumultuous years, we need to go back to the end of 2017, when the ANC held its elective conference. It was a raucous affair – not unlike the Polokwane conference at which Zuma defeated President Thabo Mbeki.
Actually, we need to go a little further back. The months preceding the conference were pretty hectic. The “Save South Africa” movement, supported by ANC veterans and a range of civic organisations, had gained momentum. The opposition appeared to be gaining and there was talk of a “purple” alliance (a mixture of DA blue and EFF red) that would govern if the ANC failed to reach a 50% majority in the national election.
At first, Zuma tolerated the “silent protests” and the opposition’s growing talk of his autocratic reach, but that soon changed. The first arrests were greeted with incredulity and with a raft of constitutional challenges. There were amazing scenes in court and on the streets as the protests grew.
The voices rising in opposition had grown exponentially since the second ratings downgrade in early 2017, with trade unions at the forefront as jobs began to be lost and the economy entered recession.
Government’s revenue began to dry up as tax collection came in way below expectations. The Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, stepped down, citing “severe emotional pressure” after his pre-dawn arrest and detention on charges which have yet to be made public. His trial is now in its seventh year after endless postponements and “trials within a trial”.
It has not helped that the new national director of public prosecutions (the fourth since 2016) announced he was going to “clean up politics and restore its dignity”.
On the campuses, the announcement that government had no more funds for student loans led to further unrest, although everyone now knows the state intelligence agencies had several prominent student leaders on their payrolls from the start.
The media has never recovered from the withdrawal of all government advertising from “organs of the enemy” and the strictures of the revived media tribunal. This, coupled with the Gupta-led takeover of Independent Media has led to a great silence in the open public discourse as the outrages mount.
The new finance minister announced cuts to social spending and that government was “re-prioritising” its budget to deal with a heightened threat from “white monopoly capital”, which Zuma has described as being funded by “the CIA”.
Citing mass unemployment, Zuma allocated billions to new jobs for what have come to be known as “start-ups”, a term used to describe the rapidly growing number of briefly trained, low-skilled recruits into the police and army that were deployed to “bring order to the situation”. Equipped with riot shields and green and gold uniforms (the opposition was outraged at the choice of colour), the Mandela Battalion, to use its official name, made news after severe beatings and the claimed “disappearances” of protest leaders.
In their strongest criticism of Zuma yet, several ANC “top-six” leaders, including Gwede Mantashe and Cyril Ramaphosa, called on him to rein in his security ministers and stop the slide of South Africa towards repression. Zuma’s refusal to meet Save South Africa or to negotiate with the student movement was leading to growing anarchy, they warned.
But the ANC continued to formally back Zuma, saying he remained their leader until he was replaced by a party conference.
Zuma declared in June 2017 that the country was “entering a crisis” and that he had established a new “security and stability” structure which consisted of security ministers, intelligence bosses and officers from the police and SADF. It was, by now, widely known that “Russian advisors” were working to bolster SA’s intelligence and cyber-intelligence capabilities. Evidence had emerged, he said, of a sophisticated underground operation which sought to destabilise the country so that it could be captured by white monopoly capital – now the centrepiece of every government minister’s speech. A constitutional court challenge was mounted, but has never been heard. I will explain why shortly.
In an extraordinary step, the public protector announced a major probe into the plot to destabilise South Africa – after an official complaint was lodged by the intelligence minister. She appealed to Zuma for funding and he agreed, adding that he had offered the “full resources of our intelligence capacity” to assist with the probe.
The hearings would take place in public “in the interest of transparency”, the public protector said. Gordhan, a list of “implicated journalists” and several other prominent public officials were subpoenaed to testify as the hearings began at Gallagher Estate in Midrand.
The proceedings were carried live on television, with the SABC providing a running commentary by a panel of “state capture experts”. The broadcasts were decried as propaganda and the clamour grew as several journalists covering the hearings were placed on the witness list after they criticised proceedings.
Zuma received a petition signed by more than half of the ANC’s NEC asking him to stay on beyond the 2017 elective conference because the party was at risk of splitting. It had the support of several provinces, the women’s, youth and veterans structures and a list of businessmen. Zuma announced that he would not stay on, but thanked the signatories for their support.
Ramaphosa announced he would stand against Zuma at the conference and was supported by Mantashe and several other high-profile ANC heavyweights. Not long thereafter, it was revealed the the Hawks had reopened the Marikana case after “new evidence” emerged connecting Ramaphosa to the killings.
You’ve probably worked out what happened next. On the raucous opening day of its conference, the ANC accepted the nomination of Zuma for a third term as ANC president. Ramaphosa was unable to address the conference as crowds of pro-Zuma supporters chanted “Killer! Killer!” whenever he attempted to speak.
The presence of the green and gold-jacketed “start-ups” caused controversy and it soon became apparent why. They removed “unruly elements” who turned out to be delegates from the provinces opposed to Zuma’s continued rule.
Citing ANC history, which allowed that when circumstances made it impossible for an election to be conducted the incumbent should continue until a suitable time and place could be found, Zuma suspended the conference after several speeches calling on him to remain in power.
The conference was rescheduled for 2021, by which time most of those opposing Zuma had left to join opposition parties or movements. It goes without saying that Zuma, who had by then taken to wearing an army jacket without insignia, was elected unopposed.
Two days later, at a “celebratory rally” in Durban, Zuma made his “moment of truth” speech. By then, the country was in foment, with protesters taking to the streets in their thousands to condemn the continuation of Zuma’s rule. The “start-ups”, now wielding shotguns, were also out in force.
“South Africa’s moment of truth has arrived,” Zuma said. “We allowed white monopoly capital and foreign powers to run this country after democracy because we wanted peace, stability and investment. We do not have peace. We do not have stability. We do not have investment.
“Instead, we have chaos, organised chaos that is trying to turn our country into a basket case.”
Then came the bombshell: “Today I received the report of the public protector into the enemies of the state that are trying to destroy our country. You won’t believe what is going on. I am talking about many prominent people who are working against stability. I have instructed the justice minister to see to it that these people are brought to trial. I bring you the very bad news that among them are judges from the highest courts in the land who have been found to be in the pay of foreign powers.
“We cannot accept this breakdown in law and order any longer. From midnight tonight, a nationwide state of emergency is in effect.”
That night, the repression began in earnest. By dawn, about 187 people were dead and a further 1200 had been arrested under emergency regulations.
International outrage grew, but not from the major powers. Russia’s Vladimir Putin backed Zuma. France’s right-wing government, the recent beneficiary of a major arms purchase by SA, said it understood why the actions had been taken. Turkey sent a message of support. China remained silent. In the US, the scene of widespread “Love trumps hate” protests for several years, events in SA were barely noticed.
When Zuma announced the “temporary” suspension of the Constitutional Court “while investigations into certain judges are under way”, few were surprised. Stunned into silence by the arrest of their colleagues, several top members of the ANC who had opposed Zuma fled to Botswana and then flew to other destinations.
Today, the JSE trades at 8% of its 2017 value and load-shedding is a daily occurrence as the nuclear build runs three years behind schedule. The lights have been out for years now after Eskom ran out of money to finance its fuel stocks. In most of Johannesburg and Pretoria, water rationing has been in effect for years.
Well, that’s where we stand.
Yours
Ray Hartley
Sun City (the prison)
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