Cyril has chickenfeed to take to ANC fight

To be frank frank, R3500 is not a lot to arrive with at an ANC elective congress as you pitch for the leadership of the party. So far, it is all Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa has in his pocket.

And only just. The “broad agreement” on a R3500 minimum wage still has a long way to go if Cyril is to be able to present it as a concrete achievement.

She, however, is less than keen.

She wants to run against corruption, but how do you square that with a Zuma endorsement?

There’s obviously a long way to go, but the party election season is already open, which is unusual.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe has scotched the hopes of Zuma acolytes for a stitched-up election in which Nkosazana would be elected based on the spurious grounds that the country “needs” a woman president.

It might be nice to have a woman in the job, but after the disaster of the Zuma years, the successor needs to be a leader capable of uniting the party and running a clean and focused government.

There might be better candidates than Nkosazana and some of them would be men.

Even more wickedly, Gwede has let it be known that there are already six candidates in the running.

We can guess some. Cyril, Nkosazana, probably Baleka Mbete and probably treasurer Zweli Mkhize.

The other two would more than likely be stalking horses for Zuma.

Or it could be the other way around. By supporting Nkosazana he could be creating a stalking horse for one of the provincial premiers who belong to the so-called Premier League.

Zuma is a master of the art of distraction. Remember how he had the opposition lining up to oppose Judge Siraj Desai as the new public protector? It allowed his real candidate, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, to slip through almost unscathed.

For all his talents and experience, Cyril doesn’t have a natural constituency of any significance.

Cosatu is backing him and so are the communists in the alliance.

The Gauteng ANC leadership might win him support, but he still has a mountain to climb.

If the election were held tomorrow, Nkosazana would win it.

But as next December gets closer and court cases and judicial inquiries strain Zuma’s position, things will change. If Zuma gets the party successor he wants, he’ll probably step down early as head of state.

When the two jobs are occupied by different people leadership becomes almost impossible. Ask Thabo Mbeki.

If he doesn’t get the candidate he wants, he’ll try to stay on in the Union Buildings.

There are ends to tie up, cronies to appease, sycophants to post abroad. But time will be his enemy.

By about March 2018, with one leader in Luthuli House and Zuma running the government, the party will begin to try to save itself.

It will recall Zuma, who in turn will dish all sorts of dirt.

This guy has been an intelligence officer for 50 years. He is ruthless, largely friendless and has the memory of an elephant.

Do not underestimate him.

But the ANC cadres taking him on in ever-growing numbers are brave, too. So 2017 will make 2016 look like a birthday party as the contest for the ANC leadership comes to the boil.

Cyril, soon, but probably not yet, will have to show his hand. If all it is holding when he does is a R20 hourly minimum wage, he will get nowhere. He is already behind the curve and the anti-Zuma groundswell is looking for a figure to coalesce around.

Mbeki will have, somewhere in the mix, his own candidate.

He is already rumoured to be the political brawn behind Sipho Pityana’s Save SA campaign, and he and Cyril are enemies.

Will Ramaphosa be pipped at the post once again by the man who stepped in between him and Nelson Mandela?

Mbeki is rumoured to have remarked not long ago that Nkosazana is not presidential material.

But it was Mbeki who made Nkosazana politically. Would he back her? Would she do a deal with him?

If Mbeki has influence and had to choose between the two front runners, he’d bury Cyril one last time.

Peter Bruce is editor-in-chief of BDFM