President Jacob Zuma must put us out of our misery. Every week, the same thing happens: I get calls from people who tell me that according to impeccably reliable sources, a Cabinet reshuffle is imminent.
Because this has been happening for more than six months, I decided to consult.
The dictionary meaning for the word “imminent” is much simpler than I thought – “about to happen”.
So, how can something be “about to happen” for so long? Maybe the president has been changing his mind … imminently.
When he is about to announce a Cabinet reshuffle, little does he know that an interruption is imminent.
Something distracts him and he forgets to make the announcement, leaving me looking like a schmuck to my wife.
The poor woman thinks I am a political analyst and the president is causing serious damage to my credibility as a husband by not announcing a Cabinet reshuffle … imminently.
What is imminent is that I am about to share what the functions of a Cabinet reshuffle as imminent as this one would be.
A Cabinet reshuffle is an administrative and political tool. It is also an exercise in political communication and it betrays the decision maker’s assessment and perception of political reality as it pertains to things such as the balance of support, the plans of political opponents, responses to the Cabinet reshuffle and the effect they might have on the decision maker, factional interests, the party, the state and the country … in that order.
This imminent Cabinet reshuffle will occur in the context of succession politics, allegations that the head of state is a franchise of the Gupta business empire and allegations that the Treasury and the finance minister are agents of ratings agencies, white capital and enemies of the leader of the South African Communist Party.
Rumours of an imminent reshuffle coincide with the growing perception (mine) that the finance minister is the de facto president, with the head of state busy with the business of making sure that the succession battle has a favourable outcome, while his finance minister is trying to sell a good story about the country and the economy to Davos Man and the last-mentioned’s cousins in the global and domestic economy as well as the free world.
As the president prepares to send the tweet announcing the Cabinet reshuffle, the momentum seems to be shifting towards the impeachment movement inside the national executive committee of the ANC, as well as the growing circle of elderly stalwarts inside the governing party.
The Cabinet reshuffle will, therefore, probably be about personal and political survival, punishing and rewarding deadwood, recycling failure, punishing underperformance, rewarding loyalty and punishing those with waning sycophancy and obsequiousness levels.
The reshuffle, if it happens, will also give a clearer sense of who, at an individual and factional level, are the insiders and outsiders in Zuma’s kingdom.
Given the possibility that such a reshuffle would be an attempt to push back the frontiers of the lame-duck phase, it will also constitute the moment when political players inside the ANC begin to position themselves less ambiguously in relation to the succession battle.
Through the reshuffle, the president may, indirectly, announce his preferred candidate for the ANC presidency. What the anointed woman must worry about is whether being Zuma’s anointee is a good or bad thing.
I say “woman” because the president has shown a lack of appetite for prevarication when it comes to discussing the names of candidates prematurely.
He has made it very clear that it is completely out of order for members of the governing party to discuss the names of potential candidates prior to the formal launch of nomination processes. His view is as clear as his insistence that the next president of the ANC must be a woman.
I suppose it is for this reason that impeccable and reliable sources, without any provocation from us political commentators and journalists, have been peddling the rumour that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is on her way to the Union Buildings to dabble either in foreign affairs or local government. This rumour is confusing.
As international relations minister Dlamini-Zuma will be globetrotting, which will deny her the chance to pretend she is doing local government’s work. In the months before a national ANC conference, its branches are the basic local government structures.
A Cabinet reshuffle can also be used to whip a deputy minister for the sins of the finance minister. A minister who loses his appetite for defending the indefensible (Nkandla) may be in trouble too.
There is the issue of tourism and a vote of no confidence too.
Aubrey Matshiqi is an independent political analyst
Dreadful consequences of perpetual Cabinet uncertainty for this one man
Because this has been happening for more than six months, I decided to consult.
The dictionary meaning for the word “imminent” is much simpler than I thought – “about to happen”.
So, how can something be “about to happen” for so long? Maybe the president has been changing his mind … imminently.
When he is about to announce a Cabinet reshuffle, little does he know that an interruption is imminent.
Something distracts him and he forgets to make the announcement, leaving me looking like a schmuck to my wife.
The poor woman thinks I am a political analyst and the president is causing serious damage to my credibility as a husband by not announcing a Cabinet reshuffle … imminently.
What is imminent is that I am about to share what the functions of a Cabinet reshuffle as imminent as this one would be.
A Cabinet reshuffle is an administrative and political tool. It is also an exercise in political communication and it betrays the decision maker’s assessment and perception of political reality as it pertains to things such as the balance of support, the plans of political opponents, responses to the Cabinet reshuffle and the effect they might have on the decision maker, factional interests, the party, the state and the country … in that order.
This imminent Cabinet reshuffle will occur in the context of succession politics, allegations that the head of state is a franchise of the Gupta business empire and allegations that the Treasury and the finance minister are agents of ratings agencies, white capital and enemies of the leader of the South African Communist Party.
Rumours of an imminent reshuffle coincide with the growing perception (mine) that the finance minister is the de facto president, with the head of state busy with the business of making sure that the succession battle has a favourable outcome, while his finance minister is trying to sell a good story about the country and the economy to Davos Man and the last-mentioned’s cousins in the global and domestic economy as well as the free world.
As the president prepares to send the tweet announcing the Cabinet reshuffle, the momentum seems to be shifting towards the impeachment movement inside the national executive committee of the ANC, as well as the growing circle of elderly stalwarts inside the governing party.
The Cabinet reshuffle will, therefore, probably be about personal and political survival, punishing and rewarding deadwood, recycling failure, punishing underperformance, rewarding loyalty and punishing those with waning sycophancy and obsequiousness levels.
The reshuffle, if it happens, will also give a clearer sense of who, at an individual and factional level, are the insiders and outsiders in Zuma’s kingdom.
Given the possibility that such a reshuffle would be an attempt to push back the frontiers of the lame-duck phase, it will also constitute the moment when political players inside the ANC begin to position themselves less ambiguously in relation to the succession battle.
Through the reshuffle, the president may, indirectly, announce his preferred candidate for the ANC presidency. What the anointed woman must worry about is whether being Zuma’s anointee is a good or bad thing.
I say “woman” because the president has shown a lack of appetite for prevarication when it comes to discussing the names of candidates prematurely.
He has made it very clear that it is completely out of order for members of the governing party to discuss the names of potential candidates prior to the formal launch of nomination processes. His view is as clear as his insistence that the next president of the ANC must be a woman.
I suppose it is for this reason that impeccable and reliable sources, without any provocation from us political commentators and journalists, have been peddling the rumour that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is on her way to the Union Buildings to dabble either in foreign affairs or local government. This rumour is confusing.
As international relations minister Dlamini-Zuma will be globetrotting, which will deny her the chance to pretend she is doing local government’s work. In the months before a national ANC conference, its branches are the basic local government structures.
A Cabinet reshuffle can also be used to whip a deputy minister for the sins of the finance minister. A minister who loses his appetite for defending the indefensible (Nkandla) may be in trouble too.
There is the issue of tourism and a vote of no confidence too.
Aubrey Matshiqi is an independent political analyst
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