What happened at the May Day rally in Bloemfontein on Monday was an embarrassment of gigantic proportions for President Jacob Zuma.
It was an embarrassment that even his spin-doctors struggle to convince us was anything but.
But Zuma went to the rally as a gamble, to test the waters. One has to look at it from his point of view and that of his ever-reliable minions, who have said the enemy comprises “white monopoly capital”, “racists” and some other nefarious agents.
Had Zuma not been booed, it would have bolstered his assertion that only a few individuals want him out, while the “masses” are with him.
That gamble has not paid off and he now has egg all over his face. What does he do?
He simply goes back to the drawing board and plans his next move.
One thing he needs to do, is to get into his head the reality that he is no longer the darling of the people, as he may once have imagined (or still does). Moreover, he has become a liability to the party he leads. His continued stay is harming its chances of claiming a victory in 2019.
The other side of this saga is the implication for Cosatu and its leadership. A few weeks ago Cosatu affiliates passed a motion of no-confidence in Zuma and resolved that he should step down.
Yet Cosatu president, S’dumo Dlamini, went on to attend a birthday celebration for Zuma and urged him “to be strong” (whatever that means).
It was a bit bizarre, Dlamini attending that birthday party so soon after Cosatu’s call for Zuma to step down. In what capacity did he attend the party, one has to wonder.
Also, inviting a president who has just been rejected by the workers to address the very same workers was being a tad over-optimistic. Yes, I’ve read and listened to the arguments that the invitation was not issued to the president per se, but the ANC as an alliance partner and it was the ANC that “deployed” its president to the rally.
That’s a cop-out. The event was held at the behest of Cosatu, they should have reminded the ANC of the resolution taken by workers regarding the president and asked for someone else.
The calculations of the president and his minions were also sadly off-base. They may have reasoned that the rally in a province led by a Zuma ally, Free State premier Ace Magashule, was a safe bet. But just days before Nehawu and Sadtu had voiced objections against the possible presence of Zuma and an address by him. Yet their protestations seemingly fell on deaf ears.
Evidently, Cosatu’s leadership is not attuned to its membership and decided to take a gamble – one that resulted in this monumental failure.
I’ll be bold to say that Cosatu may split as a result of this unfortunate incident. In the orgy of incriminations and recriminations that take place, culprits are being sought and condemned by the ANC, ANCYL,
ANCWL and others in the pro-Zuma camp.
Some people may even receive death threats.
In the tripartite alliance Cosatu is for now, in a somewhat stronger position than the SACP as it brings in much-needed votes from workers who belong to its affiliate unions. But, with pressure too much to bear, some may opt out of Cosatu or be hounded out, á la Zwelinzima Vavi. But then Cosatu’s loss may very well be Saftu’s gain.
Another result of this incident is that Zuma can no longer claim that those who oppose him are “racists”, as he did after the April march against his presidency (by people of a variety of races).
Nor were the people in Bloemfontein so-called “clever blacks”, those the president has proudly denounced in the past.
As far as the ANC is concerned, the party is damned if it does and damned if doesn’t recall Zuma.
If it does, it risks a possible split and a possible massive loss of support in KwaZulu-Natal. Should Zuma be recalled there is a significant risk that the former IFP who gravitated to the “100% Zulu boy” may take their votes back to the IFP, which may even win back the province.
On the other hand, if Zuma is retained, the ANC risks losing the 2019 national elections and being out of power. Their best bet is to keep the president in place until the elective conference in December. After that he will be shorn of power and his fate will no longer be in his hands.
The ANC may still recall him. But he will have done so much damage to the party that any successor will have his or her work cut out trying to undo it.
Lolonga Tali is an educator and analyst from King William’s Town
Facing May Day fall-out
It was an embarrassment that even his spin-doctors struggle to convince us was anything but.
But Zuma went to the rally as a gamble, to test the waters. One has to look at it from his point of view and that of his ever-reliable minions, who have said the enemy comprises “white monopoly capital”, “racists” and some other nefarious agents.
Had Zuma not been booed, it would have bolstered his assertion that only a few individuals want him out, while the “masses” are with him.
That gamble has not paid off and he now has egg all over his face. What does he do?
He simply goes back to the drawing board and plans his next move.
One thing he needs to do, is to get into his head the reality that he is no longer the darling of the people, as he may once have imagined (or still does). Moreover, he has become a liability to the party he leads. His continued stay is harming its chances of claiming a victory in 2019.
The other side of this saga is the implication for Cosatu and its leadership. A few weeks ago Cosatu affiliates passed a motion of no-confidence in Zuma and resolved that he should step down.
Yet Cosatu president, S’dumo Dlamini, went on to attend a birthday celebration for Zuma and urged him “to be strong” (whatever that means).
It was a bit bizarre, Dlamini attending that birthday party so soon after Cosatu’s call for Zuma to step down. In what capacity did he attend the party, one has to wonder.
Also, inviting a president who has just been rejected by the workers to address the very same workers was being a tad over-optimistic. Yes, I’ve read and listened to the arguments that the invitation was not issued to the president per se, but the ANC as an alliance partner and it was the ANC that “deployed” its president to the rally.
That’s a cop-out. The event was held at the behest of Cosatu, they should have reminded the ANC of the resolution taken by workers regarding the president and asked for someone else.
The calculations of the president and his minions were also sadly off-base. They may have reasoned that the rally in a province led by a Zuma ally, Free State premier Ace Magashule, was a safe bet. But just days before Nehawu and Sadtu had voiced objections against the possible presence of Zuma and an address by him. Yet their protestations seemingly fell on deaf ears.
Evidently, Cosatu’s leadership is not attuned to its membership and decided to take a gamble – one that resulted in this monumental failure.
I’ll be bold to say that Cosatu may split as a result of this unfortunate incident. In the orgy of incriminations and recriminations that take place, culprits are being sought and condemned by the ANC, ANCYL,
ANCWL and others in the pro-Zuma camp.
Some people may even receive death threats.
In the tripartite alliance Cosatu is for now, in a somewhat stronger position than the SACP as it brings in much-needed votes from workers who belong to its affiliate unions. But, with pressure too much to bear, some may opt out of Cosatu or be hounded out, á la Zwelinzima Vavi. But then Cosatu’s loss may very well be Saftu’s gain.
Another result of this incident is that Zuma can no longer claim that those who oppose him are “racists”, as he did after the April march against his presidency (by people of a variety of races).
Nor were the people in Bloemfontein so-called “clever blacks”, those the president has proudly denounced in the past.
As far as the ANC is concerned, the party is damned if it does and damned if doesn’t recall Zuma.
If it does, it risks a possible split and a possible massive loss of support in KwaZulu-Natal. Should Zuma be recalled there is a significant risk that the former IFP who gravitated to the “100% Zulu boy” may take their votes back to the IFP, which may even win back the province.
On the other hand, if Zuma is retained, the ANC risks losing the 2019 national elections and being out of power. Their best bet is to keep the president in place until the elective conference in December. After that he will be shorn of power and his fate will no longer be in his hands.
The ANC may still recall him. But he will have done so much damage to the party that any successor will have his or her work cut out trying to undo it.
Lolonga Tali is an educator and analyst from King William’s Town
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