It is tempting to suggest that last month’s jubilation by opposition parties after the Constitutional Court ruled that the speaker of parliament had the power to refuse or permit a secret ballot, was a tad premature.
Since it is the discretionary right of Baleka Mbete – and hers alone – to grant or decline the motion for a secret ballot which might result in Jacob Zuma being removed as president of the country, she holds all the aces.
Given that she has long been seen as part of Zuma’s inner circle, and given her initial resistance to the matter, it would be somewhat naive to now expect her to favour a secret vote. And it would not only be career-limiting for her but also tremendously dangerous for a party that is as wracked by factions and divisions as the ANC is.
In terms of her own prospects, if she gave the green light for the vote, she would risk getting a place on the NDZ (Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma) slate which appeared popular just before the ANC went to its national policy conference.
But on the other hand she might secure a place on the CR17 (Cyril Ramaphosa) slate which came away from the national policy conference somewhat revived and rejuvenated.
The Ramaphosa camp has distinguished itself by its condemnation of corruption and for calling for a probe to investigate the extent of state capture.
But in the event that Mbete does sanction a secret ballot for the no-confidence vote, the NDZ slate and some very powerful players in the party will view her as having sold out, not only the president but the party itself.
For the ANC the implications of a no-confidence vote being conducted via a secret ballot are almost too ghastly to contemplate. Such a vote would not affect the president alone, but his cabinet and all ANC members of parliament.
On the issue of motions of no confidence, the South African Constitution (1996) states the following in section 102 (2): If the national assembly, by a vote of a majority of its members, passes a motion of no confidence in the president, the president and other members of the cabinet and any deputy ministers must resign.”
Since the loss of no-confidence motion will not only affect the president but the other members of the cabinet and the speaker by the way, I suspect that Mbete will be extremely wary of exercising her option to allow such a process.
She might not be impervious to the impassioned appeals from, among others, the Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng, that a secret ballot should be considered on merit. But the fact is, the ANC has repeatedly demonstrated via the national executive committee meetings, that it is not about to rid itself of President Zuma any time soon.
Speaking at a National Union of Mineworkers meeting not too long ago, the ANC secretary-general, Gwede Mantashe, said that recalling the president now may cause a split in the party. It would be easier to recall Zuma as state president when he is no longer president of the party.
This, it would seem, is the general view in the NEC and the ANC overall.
Also, we should not expect those MPs who are likely to be affected by such a vote to glibly co-operate with their own “demise”. Many MPs are mature in years with slender prospects of employment elsewhere.
One should also remember that the ANC found it relatively easy to recall President Thabo Mbeki in 2008 as he was no longer president of the party though he still led the country.
It seems the ANC has a similar scenario in mind for Zuma.
If the speaker declines a secret ballot on the motion of no-confidence – as she is most likely to do – the DA and other opposition parties will likely again go court. Such an eventuality will still work in the speaker’s favour as the court process is likely to take some time.
Refusing will save her from spoiling her chances of being re-elected to the top leadership once again, for which she has thrown her hat into the ring.
As long as the matter is not concluded before the December elective conference, the speaker, in filing a counter to any motion seeking to push her into agreeing to a secret ballot, will have played her cards right.
In essence, the issue of a secret ballot is less about the wishes of the people of South Africa and more about personal survival, not only of the speaker but other ANC MPs.
In the light of the above I’ll be bold to suggest that we should not hold out too much hope for a secret ballot on the motion of no-confidence in President Jacob Zuma.
Lolonga Tali is from King William’s Town. Our Chiel is on a well-earned break
Chances are extremely slim that Mbete will agree to secret ballot
Since it is the discretionary right of Baleka Mbete – and hers alone – to grant or decline the motion for a secret ballot which might result in Jacob Zuma being removed as president of the country, she holds all the aces.
Given that she has long been seen as part of Zuma’s inner circle, and given her initial resistance to the matter, it would be somewhat naive to now expect her to favour a secret vote. And it would not only be career-limiting for her but also tremendously dangerous for a party that is as wracked by factions and divisions as the ANC is.
In terms of her own prospects, if she gave the green light for the vote, she would risk getting a place on the NDZ (Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma) slate which appeared popular just before the ANC went to its national policy conference.
But on the other hand she might secure a place on the CR17 (Cyril Ramaphosa) slate which came away from the national policy conference somewhat revived and rejuvenated.
The Ramaphosa camp has distinguished itself by its condemnation of corruption and for calling for a probe to investigate the extent of state capture.
But in the event that Mbete does sanction a secret ballot for the no-confidence vote, the NDZ slate and some very powerful players in the party will view her as having sold out, not only the president but the party itself.
For the ANC the implications of a no-confidence vote being conducted via a secret ballot are almost too ghastly to contemplate. Such a vote would not affect the president alone, but his cabinet and all ANC members of parliament.
On the issue of motions of no confidence, the South African Constitution (1996) states the following in section 102 (2): If the national assembly, by a vote of a majority of its members, passes a motion of no confidence in the president, the president and other members of the cabinet and any deputy ministers must resign.”
Since the loss of no-confidence motion will not only affect the president but the other members of the cabinet and the speaker by the way, I suspect that Mbete will be extremely wary of exercising her option to allow such a process.
She might not be impervious to the impassioned appeals from, among others, the Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng, that a secret ballot should be considered on merit. But the fact is, the ANC has repeatedly demonstrated via the national executive committee meetings, that it is not about to rid itself of President Zuma any time soon.
Speaking at a National Union of Mineworkers meeting not too long ago, the ANC secretary-general, Gwede Mantashe, said that recalling the president now may cause a split in the party. It would be easier to recall Zuma as state president when he is no longer president of the party.
This, it would seem, is the general view in the NEC and the ANC overall.
Also, we should not expect those MPs who are likely to be affected by such a vote to glibly co-operate with their own “demise”. Many MPs are mature in years with slender prospects of employment elsewhere.
One should also remember that the ANC found it relatively easy to recall President Thabo Mbeki in 2008 as he was no longer president of the party though he still led the country.
It seems the ANC has a similar scenario in mind for Zuma.
If the speaker declines a secret ballot on the motion of no-confidence – as she is most likely to do – the DA and other opposition parties will likely again go court. Such an eventuality will still work in the speaker’s favour as the court process is likely to take some time.
Refusing will save her from spoiling her chances of being re-elected to the top leadership once again, for which she has thrown her hat into the ring.
As long as the matter is not concluded before the December elective conference, the speaker, in filing a counter to any motion seeking to push her into agreeing to a secret ballot, will have played her cards right.
In essence, the issue of a secret ballot is less about the wishes of the people of South Africa and more about personal survival, not only of the speaker but other ANC MPs.
In the light of the above I’ll be bold to suggest that we should not hold out too much hope for a secret ballot on the motion of no-confidence in President Jacob Zuma.
Lolonga Tali is from King William’s Town. Our Chiel is on a well-earned break
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