JUDGING by the appointments of premiers and MPs and the statements and actions made after the elections, President Jacob Zuma and the ANC leadership is totally misreading the party’s electoral victory.
Malema was tolerated for a long time by the ANC leadership because it was believed that he was popular among this demographic.
This group notoriously often does not register to vote in elections or does not vote.
Although they again did not register in large numbers, those who did vote supported the EFF, contributing to their 1.3million voters.
Many of the black disadvantaged have now migrated to urban areas in search of opportunities and jobs.
Social welfare grants now support about 15.2million people, up from 2.5million in 1998. Treasury estimates spending on social protection will rise from R160-billion in 2012 to R182-billion this year. The ANC has gone out of its way to market the fact that it has not only expanded social grants, but that social grants are a gift specifically from the ANC government, which can or may be taken away if an opposition party, specifically the DA, comes to power.
The DA has been vocal in attacking the expansion of social grants – which plays into black poor perceptions that it is a white party opposed to helping vulnerable blacks.
Many black recipients of social grants are more likely to vote for the ANC, reckoning if the ANC is not in power, they may not get their grant. In fact, in the May elections social grant recipients, especially in the rural areas, made up a big proportion of the ANC’s voters.
What the election result says about the ANC is that the party has become a party mostly for the top “super” rich black elite, for those who get tenders from the state or jobs in the public service through the ANC, and for those who get social grants from the ANC.
Furthermore, the party has become largely a rural party, with the urban black voters increasingly deserting the party.
The ANC clearly is not getting new voters – these go to the DA, other rival parties or the EFF.
Voters in the black working class and poor areas are disillusioned with the ANC, but many stayed away from the polls rather than vote against it. While the EFF targeted this group with its populist economic message and managed to win some of this block, these “adult” voters are not currently keen on supporting the EFF, a youth party.
The black working class makes up a large proportion of the grudge voters who voted ANC.
This group is ready to vote for an “adult” party on the Left and is likely to be more open to the kind of trade union-based party currently being contemplated by Numsa.
A new danger lies ahead for the ANC. The black working class appears to be unhappy with the performance of the ANC government. This unhappiness is among both the employed and unemployed in black townships and informal settlements.
The unemployed decry the lack of jobs, opportunities and housing, and poor public services. The employed complain of poor public services and the lack of an adequate “social wage”.
The EFF is likely to grow, if it maintains its strategy of being a “movement party”, which means a party that sets up structures in the townships, informal settlements and rural villages, and piggy-backs on the community and labour protests across the country – something the established opposition parties have not done.
Furthermore, it is likely that the EFF will use parliament only to attack Zuma and the ANC, rather than focusing on the detail of parliamentary processes, which have sapped the energies of the established opposition parties.
If the EFF persists with such a strategy it will start to attract even the disillusioned “adult” working class, as well as the rest of the disadvantaged black youth.
At the same time the DA, if it goes out of its way to show that it governs in the interests of black South Africans, could possibly secure more middle class black voters.
If a new trade union-based party also forms in the near future, the ANC, if it complacently continues with its business as usual approach, arguing that only “clever blacks” and “whites” have a problem with the party’s record, may be in for a rude awakening in the next local government and national elections
William Gumede is founder and chairman of the Democracy Works Foundation, a new think tank aimed at promoting democracy in South Africa, Africa and developing countries
Zuma badly misreads old, rural party result
Malema was tolerated for a long time by the ANC leadership because it was believed that he was popular among this demographic.
This group notoriously often does not register to vote in elections or does not vote.
Although they again did not register in large numbers, those who did vote supported the EFF, contributing to their 1.3million voters.
Many of the black disadvantaged have now migrated to urban areas in search of opportunities and jobs.
Social welfare grants now support about 15.2million people, up from 2.5million in 1998. Treasury estimates spending on social protection will rise from R160-billion in 2012 to R182-billion this year. The ANC has gone out of its way to market the fact that it has not only expanded social grants, but that social grants are a gift specifically from the ANC government, which can or may be taken away if an opposition party, specifically the DA, comes to power.
The DA has been vocal in attacking the expansion of social grants – which plays into black poor perceptions that it is a white party opposed to helping vulnerable blacks.
Many black recipients of social grants are more likely to vote for the ANC, reckoning if the ANC is not in power, they may not get their grant. In fact, in the May elections social grant recipients, especially in the rural areas, made up a big proportion of the ANC’s voters.
What the election result says about the ANC is that the party has become a party mostly for the top “super” rich black elite, for those who get tenders from the state or jobs in the public service through the ANC, and for those who get social grants from the ANC.
Furthermore, the party has become largely a rural party, with the urban black voters increasingly deserting the party.
The ANC clearly is not getting new voters – these go to the DA, other rival parties or the EFF.
Voters in the black working class and poor areas are disillusioned with the ANC, but many stayed away from the polls rather than vote against it. While the EFF targeted this group with its populist economic message and managed to win some of this block, these “adult” voters are not currently keen on supporting the EFF, a youth party.
The black working class makes up a large proportion of the grudge voters who voted ANC.
This group is ready to vote for an “adult” party on the Left and is likely to be more open to the kind of trade union-based party currently being contemplated by Numsa.
A new danger lies ahead for the ANC. The black working class appears to be unhappy with the performance of the ANC government. This unhappiness is among both the employed and unemployed in black townships and informal settlements.
The unemployed decry the lack of jobs, opportunities and housing, and poor public services. The employed complain of poor public services and the lack of an adequate “social wage”.
The EFF is likely to grow, if it maintains its strategy of being a “movement party”, which means a party that sets up structures in the townships, informal settlements and rural villages, and piggy-backs on the community and labour protests across the country – something the established opposition parties have not done.
Furthermore, it is likely that the EFF will use parliament only to attack Zuma and the ANC, rather than focusing on the detail of parliamentary processes, which have sapped the energies of the established opposition parties.
If the EFF persists with such a strategy it will start to attract even the disillusioned “adult” working class, as well as the rest of the disadvantaged black youth.
At the same time the DA, if it goes out of its way to show that it governs in the interests of black South Africans, could possibly secure more middle class black voters.
If a new trade union-based party also forms in the near future, the ANC, if it complacently continues with its business as usual approach, arguing that only “clever blacks” and “whites” have a problem with the party’s record, may be in for a rude awakening in the next local government and national elections
William Gumede is founder and chairman of the Democracy Works Foundation, a new think tank aimed at promoting democracy in South Africa, Africa and developing countries
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