Data shows DA may lose major ground in EC as councils merge
The Democratic Alliance (DA) in the province is under the threat of losing major ground the party has gained in past local government and national elections, with the merger of several struggling Eastern Cape councils, analysis of recent elections data has shown.
Late last year, the Municipal Demarcation Board gave the Eastern Cape department of cooperative governance and traditional affairs (Cogta) the green light to merge ten “non-viable” councils to form three new major local municipalities.
But these merges could see the DA losing out in the August 3 Municipal Elections, with the possibility of ANC majorities in the new municipalities diluting the DA’s strong showing in previous elections.
The DA has made significant electoral gains over the years in the province in municipalities that it has deemed target areas. However the mergers will now mean that electorates in municipalities that were ANC strongholds will be merging with those that the DA enjoyed support in.
The DA is also the ruling party in Baviaans Municipality. In the 2014 general elections, the DA, which is the official opposition in the province, scooped 47.51% of the votes in that municipality, compared to the 49.83% the ANC received at the municipality, according to data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). This was an improvement compared to the 44% the party got in the 2009 national elections in Baviaans.
However, if the IEC’s past votership figures are anything to go about this momentum gained by the DA could come to a screeching halt when Baviaans municipality is merged with others.
Baviaans will be merged with Camdeboo and Ikhwezi Local municipalities and will be called Dr Beyers Naude Municipality. Camdeboo and Ikwezi are both ANC-run and the merger will mean that the DA might lose the only municipality where they govern in the Eastern Cape.
Come the local government elections, the Nelson Mandela Metro will arguably be one of the most hotly-contested municipalities in the country.
An analysis of IEC data suggest that a coalition government may take charge of the council. This year alone the ANC, DA, UDM and an independent candidate have won one ward each during by-elections in that municipality.
Analysis of the IEC data shows that the ANC has seen a major drop in the NMM from 66.53 in the 2006 local government election to 51.91 in the 2011 local government election.
DA provincial chairperson Veliswa Mvenya told the Dispatch that the party was not worried about the mergers because the votes might go either way.
“When they decided to merge the municipalities, it was their intention from the start that they wanted to dilute our votership. Everything has a positive and a negative; who knows, the mergers might play in our advantage,” Mvenya said.
Other Eastern Cape municipalities that will be amalgamated are Gariep and Maletswai, which will become Walter Sisulu; Nxuba and Nkonkobe will be known as Raymond Mhlaba; and Tsolwana, Lukhanji and Inkwanca will be called Enoch Mgijima.
Speaking to the Daily Dispatch last month, ANC provincial secretary Oscar Mabuyane said the mergers were about service delivery.
“These are non-viable small municipalities which mostly depend on grants. The mergers mean that the municipalities will be middle-sized, they will be more effective and efficient. This will improve service delivery,” Mabuyane said.
He said that the party was in the process of renaming their sub-regions to the new names that will be given to the merged municipalities.
In February, the DA announced the long-awaited mayoral candidates’ list for the municipalities which will be on their radar during the upcoming local government
elections.
These municipalities are referred to by the party as “strategic” municipalities.
The successful candidates are:
•Mrs Elza van Lingen ( NCOP MP) for the Kouga municipality.
•Ms Yolande Le Roux for the Koukamma municipality.
•Ms Samantha Jankovitch-Besan for the newly amalgamated municipality which will likely be called Dr Beyers Naude municipality (incorporating Baviaans, Camdeboo and Ikhwezi).
Athol Trollip is the party’s mayoral candidate for the hotly contested Nelson Mandela Bay Metro.
This story was produced as part of the Code for South Africa Data Journalism Academy.