Western Cape's second-wave Covid-19 tsunami dries up to a trickle

Two-and-a-half months after the second wave of Covid-19 started to take off in the Western Cape, a host of statistics on Thursday suggested it is rapidly receding.

A one-day 10% increase in active cases on November 12 signalled the beginning of the second wave, after active cases reached a low of 2,115 on October 1.

By November 30, active cases exceeded 10,000, and they soared above the first-wave high of 17,612 on December 10.

By January 11, they had reached a high of 43,971 — two-and-a-half times more than at the peak of the first wave.

But since then, the sharp incline of the second-wave active cases curve has been matched by an equally sharp decline.

On Thursday, the Western Cape government Covid-19 dashboard recorded 16,068 active cases, half the number it reported 10 days earlier.

New infections have also plummeted, from a high of 4,602 on December 19 to 853 on Thursday. New infections have been below 1,000 for four successive days, the first time this has happened since the beginning of December.

Deaths, too, are in decline. After reaching a daily record of 193 on January 5, they were down to 61 on Thursday. The provincial mortality rate among people diagnosed with Covid-19 is 3.82% compared with a national rate of 2.97%.

The Western Cape recovery rate went above 90% on Thursday, higher than the national average of 88.31%.

On Wednesday, the Western Cape cabinet decided to go ahead with attempts to acquire a contingency supply of Covid-19 vaccines.

“We find ourselves in a situation globally where there is huge demand for vaccine supply, while suppliers are not yet producing vaccines at scale,” said a provincial government statement on Thursday.

“A single acquisition vehicle carries inherent risk in this complex global system. This is especially the case in phases 2 and 3 of our vaccine rollout, where large numbers of vaccines would be required, and the national government has not yet confirmed available supply for these phases.

“Centralised procurement requires a contingency plan that is complementary to the national strategy.

“This does not mean that the province does not support or does not want to be part of the national strategy. We will continue to work with the national department of health, and we will, of course, co-ordinate our efforts with theirs. But we will at the same time ensure we can mitigate the risk and ensure additional pathways to source vaccines.”

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