Every time job creation, the housing backlog, classrooms crisis, water shortage, skills deficit or land issue are mentioned, there is an elephant in the room – one so relegated to the furthest corner that we no longer consider it all.
It is an unpopular elephant but, if faced and addressed, has the potential to reduce every one of our other problems within a few years. Its name is population growth.
We don’t want to take on behemoths that seem abstract and beyond our control.
We shun issues that don’t win votes and set off cries of Nanny State. I have rights, God said. Yet there’s hardly a problem in the world that would not be ameliorated by a cessation of the constantly rising numbers making demands on resources.
Population growth is a fundamental baseline for all development discourse, one that, unless addressed, will continue to work against the best-laid plans.
The National Development Plan is packed with ambitious targets and innovative, ideal-world scenarios for reaching them, including creating 11 million jobs by 2030. Pushing against this goal are two powerful forces: the global economy turning to technological solutions, rendering increasing numbers jobless; and millions of school-leavers entering the job market annually.
The state seems to take some cognisance of the former, but the latter is treated as a fact of nature and not something over which we have control. We do, in fact, have as much control over population growth as we are willing to take.
Globally, the impacts of population growth are glaring in relation to environments, economies and quality of life.
Stabilising populations would lessen the pressure.
The problem, it seems, is Africa’s and Asia’s. Europe, Japan and the US have stable or diminishing populations, and are under no pressure to reduce numbers. They can enjoy the benefits older and smaller populations bring; they have no imperative to constantly grow their economies.
Worldwide we see that as populations reduce, economies, freed from the pressure to grow, can transition to a “steady state” or be sustainable where citizen wellbeing rather than GDP growth is the measure of a country’s success.
Where populations fall, even a static GDP translates into rising GDP per capita.
Such countries can focus on quality of life; improved urban environments, high quality education and housing, more services for the aged, and sustainable use of land.
Some countries have already experimented with a focus on happiness rather than GDP.
Bhutan has a ministry of happiness. In Japan municipal “happiness leagues” work on creating cohesive communities of contented people. These innovative approaches are really only thinkable in countries where the basic needs of all are already met.
Not so in Africa, with its population of 1.2 billion set to increase to 2.2 billion by 2050. That is almost double the current number competing for land, housing, education and diminishing jobs.
How can this not suggest that vigorous, well-researched family planning campaigns are in order?The economic benefits alone of a stable population are so obvious the absence of a united policy boggles the mind.
In SA, 400,000 young job seekers enter the job market each year, obliterating slight gains in job availability which fluctuate each year. We’re sitting at 27% unemployment.
The NDP’s stated goal is to reduce this to 14% by 2020. We have two years to bring down by 13% a figure that rises annually. No matter how vigorous the plans, reducing population growth would do more within 20 years than any other approach to ease unemployment and a host of other challenges.
Population growth is not impossible to address. There are creative ways to place family planning at the centre of development goals without resorting to draconian, one-child-per-couple laws.
Thailand, for instance, halved its birth rate from 3.2 to 1.6 children per woman over 30 years through an innovative public education campaign that strongly linked family planning, economic development and quality of life. If Thailand can do it, Africa and SA can, too.
We need to recognise national and global population growth as central to our challenges and stop shying away from the issue.
NGOs will not touch the topic because even to talk about the benefits of smaller families is seen as a foot down the slippery slope to state control of something God given: our right – indeed our command – to procreate.
Yet among the many wonders of creation, we have been given minds with which to observe, think and change. We’ve also adequately fulfilled the command to multiply and now face problems that if not addressed at root will escalate.
And we are managers of the planet, not passive subjects.
There are those who point out that the inequitable distribution of resources is at the heart of our rapid resource depletion. But addressing our skewed resource distribution is as mammoth a task as addressing population growth; more so, as it has to do with social structures that run deep.
A common African myth is that we need more people to create markets and grow the economy. This is topsy-turvy; economies exist to serve the needs of people, not vice versa. What we need are steady-state economies; nations of stable populations, where governments, no longer racing to keep up with numbers, can focus on efficiency, innovation and equitable allocation of resources.
Endless growth on a planet of finite resources is not sustainable. We need to overcome the myths and sensitivities that cloud our thinking, and come to terms with the fact that humanity shares a common future.
If SA halved its birth rate of 2.4 children per woman, we’d halve the number of new job seekers and carbon users within a generation.
An ageing population would yield a new set of challenges – but there are models to learn from, and the issues are easier.
We need to stop polarising over this issue, stop wrapping it in layers of associations, and think further than the short-term benefits of huge markets.
A stable population is the most effective way for SA to address the challenges it faces.
Jane Mqamelo is a freelance writer and editor residing in Mthatha...