When ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the party’s election manifesto, as the party marks its 107th birthday celebrations, he will have to focus on five key issues.
The most important is how he plans to deal with corruption.The other key areas of focus where a detailed plan is required are:
The strategy on the economy. This needs to include how the party plans to address poverty, high levels of unemployment, and the collapse of state-owned enterprises such as Eskom and South African Airways, as well as key institutions such as the SA Revenue Services;
A detailed breakdown of how the party plans to deal with the land question now that the amendment of Section 25 of the constitution is no longer a point of discussion, as the majority of parties in parliament have voted in favour of the constitutional change;
How the party plans to deal with its internal crises of factions; and
Its turnaround plan for social cohesion, as South African society continues to battle with issues such as gender-based violence and volatile race relations.
Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni said as much as he agreed that all these key areas were critical as the ANC tried to renew its image, Ramaphosa would first and foremost have to focus his energy on a plan to build unity within the party.
This was because “unity is the primary thing that he should deal with, because it was the one thing that created capacity for the ANC to win and gain the mandate to do all these other things”.
“Otherwise a divided ANC will not allow him to do those things,” said Dr Fikeni.
The party has been battling factionalism in its ranks for years, especially since the watershed Polokwane conference of December 2007 where former president Jacob Zuma outclassed then president Thabo Mbeki.
Mbeki’s loss to Zuma resulted in the formation of a breakaway party, Cope, a loss the party has yet to recover from as its support at the polls has continued to dwindle.
In 2009, the party enjoyed 65.9% support at the polls nationally. But this dropped to 62.1% in the 2014 general elections and a sad 61.9% in the 2016 local elections.
Zuma’s term of office since the 2009 elections resulted in further divisions within the party, which resulted in the formation of the Julius Malema-led Economic Freedom Fighters.
SA meanwhile experienced a downward economic spiral.
The unemployment rate was 22% in 1994, 25% in 2014, and it reached its highest point so far of 26.7% last year.
Fikeni said making the economy grow would be Ramaphosa’s second key priority in an election manifesto.
“Making the economy grow. Making the economy create jobs and reduce poverty. Those are the most pressing things on people and including the fixing of state-owned companies, which forms part of the economy,” he added.
SOEs are facing serious challenges, with Eskom alone having applied, unsuccessfully, for a R100bn bail out.
The SOEs are a drain on the national economy, surviving on big bailouts with taxpayers having to field some of the costs.
Some of the SOEs were viewed as targets and had been the playing field in aspects of what is now termed state capture. There is an ongoing inquiry into SARS which is pointing to rooted corruption.
Fikeni said corruption had proven to be a deal-breaker for economic growth because “if you look at the SOEs, if you look at even the credibility and integrity of SARS and the corporate sector, corruption has become so rife that it becomes difficult for the economy to grow without suspicion that something is happening.”
A promise to deal with rampant corruption was Ramaphosa’s trump card leading up to the ANC’s elective conference at Nasrec in December 2017.
Fikeni said Ramaphosa would have to prove he had stuck to that promise and was implementing it.
The general elections come a year after parliament voted in favour of a constitutional amendment to help deal with the land question. This was after the ANC agreed to review section 25 of the constitution.
Both investors and citizens want answers on how the ANC plans to amend the constitution in its drive to address the land question.
This is probably a litmus test for Ramaphosa and the ANC.
They will have to guide this process so it does not prove to be disastrous and contributes to expanding economic inclusion at the same time as not compromising food security.
Fikeni said: “We have gone past the stage of broad pronouncements.
“A clearer posture as to what now, now that the constitution needs to be changed, is the guidance that the people might be looking for.”
The entire nation – not just the ANC’s members and supporters – is keenly waiting to see how Ramaphosa plans to turn around the fortunes of the 107-year-old movement.
Should he not succeed, just a few years past its centenary celebrations, the party might face the fate of other erstwhile liberation movements that flailed, unable to adapt to new circumstances and to revitalise their messages, and, in some cases, died.
Zine George is the Daily Dispatch’s political editor...