The Eastern Cape government is sitting on a ticking time bomb with an economy that is overly dependent on the automotive industry, says political analyst Dr Somadoda Fikeni.
Fikeni was sharing his views with the Daily Dispatch on how the mostly rural province could benefit after President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement that the ANC would support an amendment of section 25 of the constitution to enforce expropriation of land without compensation.
Fikeni said the overdependence was risky because, should one of the large vehicle manufacturers pull out of the province, “what is the Eastern Cape left with?”
The Mount Ayliff-born academic said it was important for the Eastern Cape premier Phumulo Masualle-led government to consider venturing into the green revolution, and tourism.
“What if Mercedes-Benz and VW and other related industries say tomorrow we are leaving?” he asked.“What is the Eastern Cape left with? That is why agro-processing and tourism are key, as is using our heritage for tourism,” said Fikeni.
The province has produced world-renowned leaders in politics and business, including Nelson Mandela, Robert Sobukwe, Oliver Tambo, Pam Golding and Thabo Mbeki.
According to the land audit of 2017, of the land that is under control of the state in this province, 4.8million ha (28%) is communal – meaning it is under the control of traditional leaders.
“You could even announce that you are embarking on a green revolution and a tourism revolution and reset the button of your entire industry,” Fikeni said. “Even without expropriation of land, we already have land lying fallow. We already have livestock roaming the streets. You could easily [develop] this before you even start the appropriation of land,” Fikeni added.
Among the pockets of potential development within communal land, there was an announcement back in 2004 that the state would inject billions into the Umzimvubu Water Catchments project.
But that project remains a pipe dream, except for one feasibility study after the other.
Masualle admitted during his state of the province address this year that there remains issues about the funding model of this project.
“The state could use this opportunity also to press on with the Umzimvubu water project because those have been promised for more than 10 years now.
“Every year they say it’s coming. If they wanted to make a huge impact, pushing for a green revolution would be the most profitable,” said Fikeni.
This means focusing on agriculture, markets for its produce, and the whole value chain including agro-processing and agricultural related industries.
“We already have juices coming out of pineapples [in Peddie] and oranges [in Alice/Fort Beaufort area],” he said.
Quarterly survey reports on employment released earlier this week revealed that 46% of people living in the Eastern Cape were unemployed.
Fikeni said the province could also capitalise on being the producer of world-class red meat, saying it had the largest headcount of livestock in the country.
“If you were to deal just with those things, fencing off that livestock and have a plan of grazing management and bringing in veterinarians, then the province would turn itself around,” he said.
The biggest challenge, Fikeni said, was that the Eastern Cape tended “to mimic what Gauteng and others do, when you know that in fact in Cape Town fishing and tourism are their speciality”.
“With us we always like to run behind the tail of others.
“That is why we never get things right,” said Fikeni...