THE ANC’s majority in Mthatha is in decline and it could lose the municipality in the coming local government elections.
Standing to benefit is the United Democratic Movement (UDM), which appears to be regaining ground it lost to the Congress of the People (COPE) in 2009.
Political analysts yesterday warned if the ruling party’s performance in last week’s elections is anything to go by, the ANC will have to dig deep to remain in control after the 2016 municipal polls.
The ANC’s support in the area, the King Sabata Dalindyebo (KSD) municipality, has been steadily declining since 2004, when it received close to 58% of the vote.
In 2009 the ANC received more than 73940 (56.66%) votes in the municipality. Last week that number dropped to 68414 votes, which translates to 56.65%.
On the other hand the UDM’s support grew from 33031 in 2009 to 42536 votes last week.
This meant while the ANC won over 5000 fewer votes the UDM registered 9000 votes more.
Analyst Professor Somadoda Fikeni said this showed the ANC was losing ground and the UDM’s stance on corruption was working.
“They (ANC) may still retain the municipality but not with the overwhelming support they used to have.
“Remember the ANC will have to resolve some of its factional battles. So the problem in the municipality is not only service delivery but an ANC which is not united.”
Independent analyst, Zamikhaya Maseti, warned the ANC the UDM could gain more popularity as the 2016 elections got closer.
While ANC provincial election head Mlibo Qoboshiyane denied his party was under threat in KSD, the party boss in the region, Lulama Ngcukayithobi, admitted the decline had them worried.
He added they were happy with the mandate given to them by the electorate.
“We acknowledge these elections were hotly contested with attacks directed at the ANC and its president, but having said so, people have shown substantial support for the ANC,” Ngcukayithobi said.
Fikeni said the UDM’s decision to put forward Bantu Holomisa as their premier candidate had worked for them.
“Remember that sometimes when projects don’t go well in the Eastern Cape and national comes in to assist, the people of Transkei remember these events.
“In the search for alternatives for those disappointed by the ANC, some may find the DA not suitable for historic reasons ... and the Economic Freedom Fighters too radical for their taste and therefore find the UDM as the only consistent party compared to the other smaller parties,” Fikeni said.
UDM provincial secretary Wandile Tsipa said as part of their election campaign strategy, his party concentrated mainly on rural voters and the middle class, who were tired of corruption and poor administration.
“We showed the electorate the UDM can deliver clean government and our plans are credible.”
But Qoboshiyane disputed this, saying the UDM made no serious dent in the ANC support.
“Holomisa’s strategy of being the premier candidate marginally lifted the percentage for them, but he has been humiliated by the voters,” Qoboshiyane said. “The sustainability of our numbers is an indication we are still solid.
“Our support is stable and UDM support in each election fluctuates.
“Their growth is based on sentiment and personal self-gratification of a man, which may help them but won’t unseat the ANC.”
UDM a factor in local poll
Standing to benefit is the United Democratic Movement (UDM), which appears to be regaining ground it lost to the Congress of the People (COPE) in 2009.
Political analysts yesterday warned if the ruling party’s performance in last week’s elections is anything to go by, the ANC will have to dig deep to remain in control after the 2016 municipal polls.
The ANC’s support in the area, the King Sabata Dalindyebo (KSD) municipality, has been steadily declining since 2004, when it received close to 58% of the vote.
In 2009 the ANC received more than 73940 (56.66%) votes in the municipality. Last week that number dropped to 68414 votes, which translates to 56.65%.
On the other hand the UDM’s support grew from 33031 in 2009 to 42536 votes last week.
This meant while the ANC won over 5000 fewer votes the UDM registered 9000 votes more.
Analyst Professor Somadoda Fikeni said this showed the ANC was losing ground and the UDM’s stance on corruption was working.
“They (ANC) may still retain the municipality but not with the overwhelming support they used to have.
“Remember the ANC will have to resolve some of its factional battles. So the problem in the municipality is not only service delivery but an ANC which is not united.”
Independent analyst, Zamikhaya Maseti, warned the ANC the UDM could gain more popularity as the 2016 elections got closer.
While ANC provincial election head Mlibo Qoboshiyane denied his party was under threat in KSD, the party boss in the region, Lulama Ngcukayithobi, admitted the decline had them worried.
He added they were happy with the mandate given to them by the electorate.
“We acknowledge these elections were hotly contested with attacks directed at the ANC and its president, but having said so, people have shown substantial support for the ANC,” Ngcukayithobi said.
Fikeni said the UDM’s decision to put forward Bantu Holomisa as their premier candidate had worked for them.
“Remember that sometimes when projects don’t go well in the Eastern Cape and national comes in to assist, the people of Transkei remember these events.
“In the search for alternatives for those disappointed by the ANC, some may find the DA not suitable for historic reasons ... and the Economic Freedom Fighters too radical for their taste and therefore find the UDM as the only consistent party compared to the other smaller parties,” Fikeni said.
UDM provincial secretary Wandile Tsipa said as part of their election campaign strategy, his party concentrated mainly on rural voters and the middle class, who were tired of corruption and poor administration.
“We showed the electorate the UDM can deliver clean government and our plans are credible.”
But Qoboshiyane disputed this, saying the UDM made no serious dent in the ANC support.
“Holomisa’s strategy of being the premier candidate marginally lifted the percentage for them, but he has been humiliated by the voters,” Qoboshiyane said. “The sustainability of our numbers is an indication we are still solid.
“Our support is stable and UDM support in each election fluctuates.
“Their growth is based on sentiment and personal self-gratification of a man, which may help them but won’t unseat the ANC.”
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