The Eastern Cape is heading for a summer drought because of the weather phenomenon El Ninõ Southern oscillation, or Enso – or known simply as El Ninõ.
But East London Museum scientist Kevin Cole said the local effects of the Indian Ocean could slow down El Ninõ, which was happening halfway around the world, making it impossible to accurately predict the severity of the drought.
“Each El Ninõ season does bring with it a reduction in rainfall and a consequent lowering of agricultural yield,” he said.
“Droughts earlier this year have already cut the yield of maize by a quarter.
“Our local climatic conditions are still influenced by events in the Indian Ocean which plays an important role in the nature of the precipitation patterns (rain) associated with an El Ninõ event.
“The strong El Ninõ of 1997-98 did not effect SA as much as predicted.”
On Tuesday the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) called a media conference to announce that climate models were showing that this El Ninõ was shaping up to be one of the strongest on record.
The effect on the Eastern Cape would be to push up temperatures and keep rain away from the province, according to a seasonal climate watch advisory yesterday from the SA Weather Office in Port Elizabeth.
The advisory states there will be good, even above normal, rain in spring, followed by a searing blast in summer, termed by the advisory as “a high chance of extremely dry conditions”.
It also warns of “extreme warmer temperatures over most of SA”.
The WMO said climate models suggested surface waters in the east-central Pacific Ocean between Asia, Indonesia and Australia and South and North America, would be more than two degrees hotter than average.
WMO’s Maxx Dilley said said El Ninõ could cause drier conditions in southern Africa and bring flooding to the Horn of Africa.
Cole said El Ninõ was a low pressure system (warm air) which developed every three to seven years over the central-eastern Pacific because of high sea surface temperatures which affected global weather.
East London surf and angling forecaster Nick Pike said: “The waves and the weather do not seem to be behaving as we would normally expect. Shad season this year has been less than impressive too. Heavy winter rain in our area ? Where did that come from?” — mikel@dispatch.co.za
Summer in EC predicted to be drier and hotter
But East London Museum scientist Kevin Cole said the local effects of the Indian Ocean could slow down El Ninõ, which was happening halfway around the world, making it impossible to accurately predict the severity of the drought.
“Each El Ninõ season does bring with it a reduction in rainfall and a consequent lowering of agricultural yield,” he said.
“Droughts earlier this year have already cut the yield of maize by a quarter.
“Our local climatic conditions are still influenced by events in the Indian Ocean which plays an important role in the nature of the precipitation patterns (rain) associated with an El Ninõ event.
“The strong El Ninõ of 1997-98 did not effect SA as much as predicted.”
On Tuesday the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) called a media conference to announce that climate models were showing that this El Ninõ was shaping up to be one of the strongest on record.
The effect on the Eastern Cape would be to push up temperatures and keep rain away from the province, according to a seasonal climate watch advisory yesterday from the SA Weather Office in Port Elizabeth.
The advisory states there will be good, even above normal, rain in spring, followed by a searing blast in summer, termed by the advisory as “a high chance of extremely dry conditions”.
It also warns of “extreme warmer temperatures over most of SA”.
The WMO said climate models suggested surface waters in the east-central Pacific Ocean between Asia, Indonesia and Australia and South and North America, would be more than two degrees hotter than average.
WMO’s Maxx Dilley said said El Ninõ could cause drier conditions in southern Africa and bring flooding to the Horn of Africa.
Cole said El Ninõ was a low pressure system (warm air) which developed every three to seven years over the central-eastern Pacific because of high sea surface temperatures which affected global weather.
East London surf and angling forecaster Nick Pike said: “The waves and the weather do not seem to be behaving as we would normally expect. Shad season this year has been less than impressive too. Heavy winter rain in our area ? Where did that come from?” — mikel@dispatch.co.za
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