Political parties start preparing for re-election the next day after taking office. This is because election manifestos are based on what has been achieved.
The longer the time an incumbent has to implement their policies the likelier it is that they will have tangible results by the next election. Such results, in turn, become the basis of an election message, which also lends credence to the campaign.
In other words, a governing party can only campaign on what they can demonstrate they have achieved. This evidence earns them the trust of the electorate that they’ll fulfil their promises in the next term.
That said, not all the incumbent has achieved is necessarily effective campaign material. New concerns arise which may easily erode the significance of their successes.
Take the ANC’s phenomenal record, for instance, on social transformation. Delivery on housing, infrastructure and access to health, just to mention a few, is possibly unparalleled in the post-colonial world.
That hasn’t been enough, however, to retain their electoral peak of 69% in 2004.
Rather than remain uncritically grateful to the ANC government, traditional supporters have become increasingly discontent about the lack of employment and rampant corruption. Every credible survey identifies these two issues as the uppermost concerns of South Africa’s eligible voters.
Service delivery no longer has absolute traction as a campaign message. Instead voters want to know what politicians have done to fight corruption and create jobs. Creating jobs is a long-term objective, whilst malfeasance can be tackled immediately.
What I’m saying, therefore, is that the only available route open for the ANC to stem its electoral decline in 2019 is a platform of ethical leadership and renewal.
The credibility of the electoral theme, however, is not established during an election campaign. One needs to prepare the ground beforehand so that the electoral message will have traction.
Eligible voters should be able to verify the message according to what they’ve seen happening. Without demonstrable evidence ahead of an election, an electoral message rings hollow and voters consequently dismiss it as opportunistic.
This is even worse when a party suffers a deficit of popular trust, as the ANC does.
To his credit, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa has correctly predicated his candidature on ethical leadership and renewal. Speaking at the SACP’s 14th congress on July 12, he said: “Not a day passes that we do not gain greater insight into a network of illicit relationships, contracts, deals and appointments designed to benefit just one family, and their associates… We know without any shred of uncertainty that billions of rands of public resources have been diverted into the pockets of a few … These are resources that rightly belong to the people of South Africa”.
Ramaphosa went further to not only reiterate the urgency of instituting a judicial commission of inquiry into state capture, but also to call for the arrest of the culprits and the recovery of the stolen state funds.
What is now left is for Ramaphosa’s candidature to gain substance. This not only depends on merely arresting culprits and recovering the loot, but also on timing.
The judicial inquiry will most likely start in November or December 2017 after the Constitutional Court (ConCourt) has decided whether the President or the Chief Justice must appoint the judge to lead it.
That leaves roughly 18 months to the 2019 national elections. This is insufficient time to build the requisite base for Ramaphosa’s electoral message. To be credible, Ramaphosa’s promise of starting anew must be backed up by convictions.
The belief that politicians act with impunity is deeply engrained in our society. President Jacob Zuma’s evasion of a trial, for instance, has been going on for so long that people doubt that he’ll ever be prosecuted. They even call Zuma phunyuka bempethe, a Houdini of sorts.
But we’re unlikely to see convictions by the end of 2018. The inquiry will only complete its work after June 2018, after which prosecutions are likely to commence and go on for no less than a year before conclusive verdicts are delivered.
That takes us beyond 2019 election.
That’s why Ramaphosa cannot wait until January 2018 for the judicial inquiry to begin. In light of this delay, parliamentary probes have a better chance of uncovering wrongdoing quickly enough to yield conclusive trials by 2019 elections.
These have already started.
It is possible, of course, that the National Director of Public Prosecutions, Shaun Abrahams, will be leant on not to prosecute. But that will be difficult in the face of the abundance of irrefutable evidence of corruption being made public through the parliamentary hearings and the likely public outcry that will follow if Abrahams refuses to uphold the law.
A possible threat to remove him through a parliamentary process may add impetus to the prosecutorial process.
If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins the ANC presidency in December, which is also likely, the party faces an even bleaker electoral prospect. One can’t think of any credible message offered by Dlamini-Zuma that will convince 40% of the South African electorate to vote for the ANC in 2019.
Her chief campaigner and ex-husband, Zuma, hasn’t acted against the ministers implicated in state capture. This is despite her party resolving that members who bring the party into disrepute must resign. But that’s not surprising given that Zuma himself is refusing to resign.
Spawned by a Zuma-presidency, what can Dlamini-Zuma possibly say to persuade people she is trustworthy?
In fact, Dlamini-Zuma’s election campaign will have to spend most of its time trying to convince the electorate that she’s not a Gupta proxy. No party pre-occupied by fending off accusations instead of defining what it stands for ever wins a credible election.
In any case, a possible split in the wake of Dlamini-Zuma winning the ANC presidency will further weaken the party’s campaign in 2019.
Ramaphosa’s supporters will have no reason to remain within a Dlamini-Zuma-ANC. She represents the opposite of what they stand for and her victory would simply mean the ANC is impervious to reforms. A Dlamini-Zuma ANC in 2019 will be organisationally crippled and morally bereft, making it a perfect candidate for a thorough whipping at the polls.
That’s what has emboldened the SACP to take the historic decision to contest elections independently. They’re preparing to jump ship. But, they’re not fully prepared to mobilise a broad electoral front of progressive forces. Blade Nzimande is not the ideal person to lead the Party into that new journey. His association with Zuma is inescapable, making him come across as more of an opportunistic critic of Zuma than a genuine agent for a new beginning.
The new allies he wants to make are unlikely to warm up to him. He crossed swords with some of them whilst stridently defending Zuma not too long ago.
The Party should have elected Solly Mapaila as its new general-secretary instead. Mapaila’s outrage against state capture is easily believable and he enjoys credibility, if not respect, within civil society.
He’s the man to lead the Party into coalition talks with other organisations.
A serious reconfiguration of the country’s party system certainly beckons. Whatever the outcome of the ANC’s elective conference in December, South Africa’s political outlook in 2018 will surely be very different to the preceding year.
Mcebisi Ndletyana is associate professor of politics at the University of Johannesburg
Caught between rock and a hard place
The longer the time an incumbent has to implement their policies the likelier it is that they will have tangible results by the next election. Such results, in turn, become the basis of an election message, which also lends credence to the campaign.
In other words, a governing party can only campaign on what they can demonstrate they have achieved. This evidence earns them the trust of the electorate that they’ll fulfil their promises in the next term.
That said, not all the incumbent has achieved is necessarily effective campaign material. New concerns arise which may easily erode the significance of their successes.
Take the ANC’s phenomenal record, for instance, on social transformation. Delivery on housing, infrastructure and access to health, just to mention a few, is possibly unparalleled in the post-colonial world.
That hasn’t been enough, however, to retain their electoral peak of 69% in 2004.
Rather than remain uncritically grateful to the ANC government, traditional supporters have become increasingly discontent about the lack of employment and rampant corruption. Every credible survey identifies these two issues as the uppermost concerns of South Africa’s eligible voters.
Service delivery no longer has absolute traction as a campaign message. Instead voters want to know what politicians have done to fight corruption and create jobs. Creating jobs is a long-term objective, whilst malfeasance can be tackled immediately.
What I’m saying, therefore, is that the only available route open for the ANC to stem its electoral decline in 2019 is a platform of ethical leadership and renewal.
The credibility of the electoral theme, however, is not established during an election campaign. One needs to prepare the ground beforehand so that the electoral message will have traction.
Eligible voters should be able to verify the message according to what they’ve seen happening. Without demonstrable evidence ahead of an election, an electoral message rings hollow and voters consequently dismiss it as opportunistic.
This is even worse when a party suffers a deficit of popular trust, as the ANC does.
To his credit, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa has correctly predicated his candidature on ethical leadership and renewal. Speaking at the SACP’s 14th congress on July 12, he said: “Not a day passes that we do not gain greater insight into a network of illicit relationships, contracts, deals and appointments designed to benefit just one family, and their associates… We know without any shred of uncertainty that billions of rands of public resources have been diverted into the pockets of a few … These are resources that rightly belong to the people of South Africa”.
Ramaphosa went further to not only reiterate the urgency of instituting a judicial commission of inquiry into state capture, but also to call for the arrest of the culprits and the recovery of the stolen state funds.
What is now left is for Ramaphosa’s candidature to gain substance. This not only depends on merely arresting culprits and recovering the loot, but also on timing.
The judicial inquiry will most likely start in November or December 2017 after the Constitutional Court (ConCourt) has decided whether the President or the Chief Justice must appoint the judge to lead it.
That leaves roughly 18 months to the 2019 national elections. This is insufficient time to build the requisite base for Ramaphosa’s electoral message. To be credible, Ramaphosa’s promise of starting anew must be backed up by convictions.
The belief that politicians act with impunity is deeply engrained in our society. President Jacob Zuma’s evasion of a trial, for instance, has been going on for so long that people doubt that he’ll ever be prosecuted. They even call Zuma phunyuka bempethe, a Houdini of sorts.
But we’re unlikely to see convictions by the end of 2018. The inquiry will only complete its work after June 2018, after which prosecutions are likely to commence and go on for no less than a year before conclusive verdicts are delivered.
That takes us beyond 2019 election.
That’s why Ramaphosa cannot wait until January 2018 for the judicial inquiry to begin. In light of this delay, parliamentary probes have a better chance of uncovering wrongdoing quickly enough to yield conclusive trials by 2019 elections.
These have already started.
It is possible, of course, that the National Director of Public Prosecutions, Shaun Abrahams, will be leant on not to prosecute. But that will be difficult in the face of the abundance of irrefutable evidence of corruption being made public through the parliamentary hearings and the likely public outcry that will follow if Abrahams refuses to uphold the law.
A possible threat to remove him through a parliamentary process may add impetus to the prosecutorial process.
If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins the ANC presidency in December, which is also likely, the party faces an even bleaker electoral prospect. One can’t think of any credible message offered by Dlamini-Zuma that will convince 40% of the South African electorate to vote for the ANC in 2019.
Her chief campaigner and ex-husband, Zuma, hasn’t acted against the ministers implicated in state capture. This is despite her party resolving that members who bring the party into disrepute must resign. But that’s not surprising given that Zuma himself is refusing to resign.
Spawned by a Zuma-presidency, what can Dlamini-Zuma possibly say to persuade people she is trustworthy?
In fact, Dlamini-Zuma’s election campaign will have to spend most of its time trying to convince the electorate that she’s not a Gupta proxy. No party pre-occupied by fending off accusations instead of defining what it stands for ever wins a credible election.
In any case, a possible split in the wake of Dlamini-Zuma winning the ANC presidency will further weaken the party’s campaign in 2019.
Ramaphosa’s supporters will have no reason to remain within a Dlamini-Zuma-ANC. She represents the opposite of what they stand for and her victory would simply mean the ANC is impervious to reforms. A Dlamini-Zuma ANC in 2019 will be organisationally crippled and morally bereft, making it a perfect candidate for a thorough whipping at the polls.
That’s what has emboldened the SACP to take the historic decision to contest elections independently. They’re preparing to jump ship. But, they’re not fully prepared to mobilise a broad electoral front of progressive forces. Blade Nzimande is not the ideal person to lead the Party into that new journey. His association with Zuma is inescapable, making him come across as more of an opportunistic critic of Zuma than a genuine agent for a new beginning.
The new allies he wants to make are unlikely to warm up to him. He crossed swords with some of them whilst stridently defending Zuma not too long ago.
The Party should have elected Solly Mapaila as its new general-secretary instead. Mapaila’s outrage against state capture is easily believable and he enjoys credibility, if not respect, within civil society.
He’s the man to lead the Party into coalition talks with other organisations.
A serious reconfiguration of the country’s party system certainly beckons. Whatever the outcome of the ANC’s elective conference in December, South Africa’s political outlook in 2018 will surely be very different to the preceding year.
Mcebisi Ndletyana is associate professor of politics at the University of Johannesburg
Would you like to comment on this article?
Register (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Trending Now
Latest Videos