THE overwhelming victory of the ANC, despite what can be kindly described as an underperforming government, is the key puzzle of the elections to unravel.
Why were people so quick to forgive the ANC and vote for it even though many of them had been protesting in the streets only months before the poll or calling in to radio talk shows to vent their frustration?
As well as broadcasting its message of togetherness, the ANC campaign also paid close attention to the “hot spots”, where protest activity has flared in recent months. Provincial ANC and SACP officials visited many of the troubled communities, intervening in local internal governing party battles. In many instances, they found that although people are living in adverse socioeconomic conditions and have reason to demonstrate, the protests themselves are organised and fuelled by disgruntled elements within the ANC, fighting over the spoils of patronage and seeking to get the attention of the party’s leaders rather than organise a revolution.
Addressing these in many cases, but not all, was enough to put an end to the problems and bring most community leaders back onside for the election campaign. So, even in hot spots, the ANC again won solid majorities, although not without losses. In Bronkhorstspruit, for example, the ANC majority was hardly harmed at all.
Mothutlung and Bekkersdal, where the EFF campaigned hard, were safely won by the ANC. But the EFF did significant damage to what used to be enormous ANC majorities. In Rustenburg, where the issues are different and anger against the ANC is really over the platinum strike, its majority was brought down from 73.8% in 2009 to 57%.
While this shows that it matters to have an electoral alternative, as in the EFF this time, the bigger lesson is that the ANC has held onto the middle ground. So, as some parts of the ANC support base fall away – the left, the genuine socialists, the human rights lobbyists and impatient or apathetic youth – most of the base is firmly in place.
As leader of the nation-building process, it has been relatively easy to persuade the majority that their best interests lie in standing together. Provided the ANC is moderately successful in getting the economy and some job creation going, its blend of patronage politics and national togetherness could remain a compelling choice for a solid majority for a long time to come
Carol Paton is writer at large for Business Day.
Puzzle of ANC success
Why were people so quick to forgive the ANC and vote for it even though many of them had been protesting in the streets only months before the poll or calling in to radio talk shows to vent their frustration?
As well as broadcasting its message of togetherness, the ANC campaign also paid close attention to the “hot spots”, where protest activity has flared in recent months. Provincial ANC and SACP officials visited many of the troubled communities, intervening in local internal governing party battles. In many instances, they found that although people are living in adverse socioeconomic conditions and have reason to demonstrate, the protests themselves are organised and fuelled by disgruntled elements within the ANC, fighting over the spoils of patronage and seeking to get the attention of the party’s leaders rather than organise a revolution.
Addressing these in many cases, but not all, was enough to put an end to the problems and bring most community leaders back onside for the election campaign. So, even in hot spots, the ANC again won solid majorities, although not without losses. In Bronkhorstspruit, for example, the ANC majority was hardly harmed at all.
Mothutlung and Bekkersdal, where the EFF campaigned hard, were safely won by the ANC. But the EFF did significant damage to what used to be enormous ANC majorities. In Rustenburg, where the issues are different and anger against the ANC is really over the platinum strike, its majority was brought down from 73.8% in 2009 to 57%.
While this shows that it matters to have an electoral alternative, as in the EFF this time, the bigger lesson is that the ANC has held onto the middle ground. So, as some parts of the ANC support base fall away – the left, the genuine socialists, the human rights lobbyists and impatient or apathetic youth – most of the base is firmly in place.
As leader of the nation-building process, it has been relatively easy to persuade the majority that their best interests lie in standing together. Provided the ANC is moderately successful in getting the economy and some job creation going, its blend of patronage politics and national togetherness could remain a compelling choice for a solid majority for a long time to come
Carol Paton is writer at large for Business Day.
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