THE race to fill the ANC’s premier posts is wide open in at least four of the eight provinces the party retained in last Wednesday’s national elections.
The final decision will be taken by the party’s top six officials, led by President Jacob Zuma – who will be looking to appoint people he can trust as he seeks to build a legacy in his last term of government.
After a show of unity during the election season, political volatility within the ANC is expected to rise again in anticipation of the provinces submitting the names of three preferred premier candidates to the party’s national executive committee for consideration.
Unlike the DA – which names its premier candidates up-front ahead of the election, such as Mmusi Maimane in Gauteng – the ANC’s tactic is to keep this process open until after the elections, primarily to avoid a situation where members cease to campaign for the party because their preferred candidate has been snubbed.
Political analyst Xolani Dube says the appointment of premiers is another way for the president to consolidate his power. “It is always problematic for the president to appoint someone he cannot trust.”
In the Eastern Cape premier Noxolo Kiviet has made clear her willingness to serve for a second term after she declined nomination to the province’s national election list. She was at number 23 on the province’s list of provincial candidates.
However, supporters of ANC provincial chairman Phumulo Masualle, who is serving a second term after re-election last June, have expressed concern about having different candidates for premier and party chairman. Masualle was elected ANC chairman for his first term in September 2009, a few months after Kiviet became premier in May.
Also in the running are local government MEC Mlibo Qoboshiyane and human settlements MEC Helen August.
One of the factors will be to balance gender representation. Zuma had four female premiers in 2009: Gauteng, the Northern Cape, the Eastern Cape and the North West.
However, premier posts are not treated as ANC structures, so the appointments are not subject to the strict 50-50 representation rule that applies to the composition of the national executive committee and parliamentary caucus.
Also, the ANC is headed by men in all nine provinces, and it is seen as preferable to have the provincial leader serve as premier to avoid the crippling effects of having two centres of power.
What will also be closely watched is the ANC’s response to the drop in voter support in Gauteng, the country’s economic hub. The candidate the party opts for will shoulder the responsibility of turning the situation around ahead of the 2016 municipal elections. The ANC’s electoral tally in the province fell to 55% last week from 65% in 2009.
Gauteng premier Nomvula Mokonyane is seen to have an early advantage because of her closeness to Zuma, as opposed to her rivals in the ANC executive in Gauteng under Paul Mashatile.
But, like Mashatile, Mokonyane cannot be absolved from the humiliating loss of support in the province.
The group aligned to Mashatile is punting provincial secretary David Makhura as its premier candidate.
He topped the province’s election list submitted, followed by Gauteng education MEC Barbara Creecy and human settlements MEC Ntombi Mekgwe.
Mokonyane came in at a low number 11.
In Mpumalanga and the Free State, it is almost certain Zuma’s allies and provincial strongmen, David Mabuza and Ace Magashule, respectively, will stay on as premiers for the next five years.
Both consolidated their positions last week by scoring electoral victories for the ANC in the 70% range.
Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha became the front-runner the moment he was summoned back from his post as ambassador to Ukraine to replace Cassel Mathale as premier in July last year – amid high levels of instability in the ANC and government due to factionalism.
A plus for Mathabatha is that he cannot be blamed for the drop in support in Limpopo, to 78.97% from 85.27%.
He did himself a favour, too, by winning the provincial elective conference in February.
The strength of Mabuza, Magashule and Mathabatha’s positions leaves fewer spots for men in the remaining five provinces.
In the North West, obstacles seem cleared for provincial chairman Supra Mahumapelo to assume the premier post following a 68% election victory last week.
But this is down from 74% in 2009.
Premier Thandi Modise, sixth on the North West election list, is also not expected to give up the seat without a fight. She has been credited with bringing stability to the provincial government. But her judgment, in a province that continues to struggle with financial accounting, came under scrutiny towards the end of last year following revelations that she had bought a luxury BMW at an excessive cost to the public coffers.
Mahumapelo also has a pending matter of questionable expenses on his state credit card. He considers the matter closed but the standing committee on public accounts in the province last month referred it to the incoming committee for further investigation.
The future of Northern Cape chairman John Block is unclear as he and two other ANC leaders are accused of fraud, corruption and money laundering relating to kickbacks from a property company. But he secured a 64% victory for the ANC in the province, up from 61% in 2009 to join KwaZulu-Natal as the only two where the ANC grew support.
In Block’s absence, Northern Cape local government MEC Kenny Mmoiemang and premier Sylvia Lucas stand a chance.
The ANC won 65% in KwaZulu-Natal last week, from 64% in 2009.
KwaZulu-Natal ANC chairman Senzo Mchunu, number two on the provincial election list, is expected to return as premier. His rival for head of the ANC in the province, Willies Mchunu, is number four. They competed to replace ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize as provincial chairman in March last year. Speculation at the time was that his resignation was delayed as Luthuli House was uncomfortable with Mchunu’s emergence.
The other names in the top three are Nomusa Dube and Magdalene Cronje.
Friction rising ahead of premier appointments
The final decision will be taken by the party’s top six officials, led by President Jacob Zuma – who will be looking to appoint people he can trust as he seeks to build a legacy in his last term of government.
After a show of unity during the election season, political volatility within the ANC is expected to rise again in anticipation of the provinces submitting the names of three preferred premier candidates to the party’s national executive committee for consideration.
Unlike the DA – which names its premier candidates up-front ahead of the election, such as Mmusi Maimane in Gauteng – the ANC’s tactic is to keep this process open until after the elections, primarily to avoid a situation where members cease to campaign for the party because their preferred candidate has been snubbed.
Political analyst Xolani Dube says the appointment of premiers is another way for the president to consolidate his power. “It is always problematic for the president to appoint someone he cannot trust.”
In the Eastern Cape premier Noxolo Kiviet has made clear her willingness to serve for a second term after she declined nomination to the province’s national election list. She was at number 23 on the province’s list of provincial candidates.
However, supporters of ANC provincial chairman Phumulo Masualle, who is serving a second term after re-election last June, have expressed concern about having different candidates for premier and party chairman. Masualle was elected ANC chairman for his first term in September 2009, a few months after Kiviet became premier in May.
Also in the running are local government MEC Mlibo Qoboshiyane and human settlements MEC Helen August.
One of the factors will be to balance gender representation. Zuma had four female premiers in 2009: Gauteng, the Northern Cape, the Eastern Cape and the North West.
However, premier posts are not treated as ANC structures, so the appointments are not subject to the strict 50-50 representation rule that applies to the composition of the national executive committee and parliamentary caucus.
Also, the ANC is headed by men in all nine provinces, and it is seen as preferable to have the provincial leader serve as premier to avoid the crippling effects of having two centres of power.
What will also be closely watched is the ANC’s response to the drop in voter support in Gauteng, the country’s economic hub. The candidate the party opts for will shoulder the responsibility of turning the situation around ahead of the 2016 municipal elections. The ANC’s electoral tally in the province fell to 55% last week from 65% in 2009.
Gauteng premier Nomvula Mokonyane is seen to have an early advantage because of her closeness to Zuma, as opposed to her rivals in the ANC executive in Gauteng under Paul Mashatile.
But, like Mashatile, Mokonyane cannot be absolved from the humiliating loss of support in the province.
The group aligned to Mashatile is punting provincial secretary David Makhura as its premier candidate.
He topped the province’s election list submitted, followed by Gauteng education MEC Barbara Creecy and human settlements MEC Ntombi Mekgwe.
Mokonyane came in at a low number 11.
In Mpumalanga and the Free State, it is almost certain Zuma’s allies and provincial strongmen, David Mabuza and Ace Magashule, respectively, will stay on as premiers for the next five years.
Both consolidated their positions last week by scoring electoral victories for the ANC in the 70% range.
Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha became the front-runner the moment he was summoned back from his post as ambassador to Ukraine to replace Cassel Mathale as premier in July last year – amid high levels of instability in the ANC and government due to factionalism.
A plus for Mathabatha is that he cannot be blamed for the drop in support in Limpopo, to 78.97% from 85.27%.
He did himself a favour, too, by winning the provincial elective conference in February.
The strength of Mabuza, Magashule and Mathabatha’s positions leaves fewer spots for men in the remaining five provinces.
In the North West, obstacles seem cleared for provincial chairman Supra Mahumapelo to assume the premier post following a 68% election victory last week.
But this is down from 74% in 2009.
Premier Thandi Modise, sixth on the North West election list, is also not expected to give up the seat without a fight. She has been credited with bringing stability to the provincial government. But her judgment, in a province that continues to struggle with financial accounting, came under scrutiny towards the end of last year following revelations that she had bought a luxury BMW at an excessive cost to the public coffers.
Mahumapelo also has a pending matter of questionable expenses on his state credit card. He considers the matter closed but the standing committee on public accounts in the province last month referred it to the incoming committee for further investigation.
The future of Northern Cape chairman John Block is unclear as he and two other ANC leaders are accused of fraud, corruption and money laundering relating to kickbacks from a property company. But he secured a 64% victory for the ANC in the province, up from 61% in 2009 to join KwaZulu-Natal as the only two where the ANC grew support.
In Block’s absence, Northern Cape local government MEC Kenny Mmoiemang and premier Sylvia Lucas stand a chance.
The ANC won 65% in KwaZulu-Natal last week, from 64% in 2009.
KwaZulu-Natal ANC chairman Senzo Mchunu, number two on the provincial election list, is expected to return as premier. His rival for head of the ANC in the province, Willies Mchunu, is number four. They competed to replace ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize as provincial chairman in March last year. Speculation at the time was that his resignation was delayed as Luthuli House was uncomfortable with Mchunu’s emergence.
The other names in the top three are Nomusa Dube and Magdalene Cronje.
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