Tensions within Cosatu, and within its alliance with the ANC and SACP, have risen considerably in recent years – ironically after the ascension to power of the Zuma camp, which was meant to resolve these differences.
The Marikana massacre of striking mineworkers in 2012 seemed to signal a major turning point for the working class – akin to the last time striking workers were massacred by government 90 years earlier.
Yet the 2014 national elections returned the ANC to power with a healthy majority, winning 62.15% of the vote (albeit with a lower voter turnout). It also won all provinces except, predictably, the Western Cape, and this has given added impetus to the view amongst some trade union leaders that the majority of the black working class still fall squarely behind the party of national liberation, and its alliance partners the SACP and Cosatu.
For ANC/SACP supporters in Cosatu, whatever failings exist within the movement have to be fixed from within.
While some may prefer the leadership of President Jacob Zuma, and feel that accusations against him are exaggerated, others look to Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa to rescue the ruling party. Indeed, in the economic heartland of Gauteng, regarded as a dissident province, Ramaphosa has strong backing.
In the run-up to the 2017 elections for party leadership, other names are likely to emerge.
However, unlike the 2009 and 2012 leadership battles, when Zuma ran against Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe respectively, the next few years will see a dramatically different context. The ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance is no longer the centre of gravity as it once was. The rise of the EFF and the AMCU, and the disaffection of Numsa, offer real alternatives to the “left” of the ANC-alliance. Despite its healthy parliamentary majority, the ruling party has acknowledged that it is facing a potential crisis, as disaffection with its leadership continues to gather momentum. This book uses data obtained from the Cosatu shop steward survey of 2012, as well as a more recent survey conducted before the 2014 elections to assess, amongst other things, what workers’ political attitudes are.
As the 2014 national elections results show, support for the ANC remains widespread, and confirms the intention of 90% of shop stewards surveyed in 2012 to vote for the ANC. The party to score second highest was the SACP at 2%, giving a collective total of 92%.
However, surveys show that workers since 1994 have shown increasing ambivalence when it comes to government performance and support for the ruling party.
While there is a degree of acknowledgement that government has met some worker expectations, workers remain critical of lack of progress in addressing unemployment, rising inequality and persistent poverty, as well as rising corruption in government.
There is however, more severe awareness that government has failed to deliver services at local government level. Workers seem to make a separation between national government – where the ANC functions at a distance – and local government, where blame can be laid at the door of individuals.
At both levels the failures of the ANC can be attributed to individuals – whether Zuma, at national level, and local councillors and mayors at local level.
The organisation itself, however, seems to assume a mythical or religious status and for a large number of workers, can do no wrong.
The 92% recorded ANC/SACP support amongst shop stewards has to be situated in the context of almost half the workers indicating that politics is “too complicated for workers to understand what is going on” (and their high reliance on the SABC for news and information).
As opposed to politicians, surveys continue to show that workers place a greater deal of trust in their union leaders. While influence goes both ways, it seems that a large number of workers rely heavily on their union leaders to give them guidance in political matters.
However, whilst some workers may feel alienated from aspects of the party political process, there is a strong political consciousness. Almost 80% believe that workers should influence the political system, 59% want union leaders to be leaders in political parties, and workers in most affiliates want unions to be involved in politics.
More significantly, if Cosatu were to form a labour party, 65% said they would vote for it in the next elections.
This strongly suggests that, if affiliates allow a free debate within their structures, allegiances to the ANC and the alliance may shift. This is clearly illustrated in the case of Numsa, where debate and argument within the union caused a sea change in attitudes towards the SACP and the alliance.
In the past this was blocked, and in one notable case CEPPWAWU Gauteng regional secretary John Appolis was dismissed from the union for daring to propose a referendum amongst workers on the alliance.
Nevertheless, note must be taken of the fact that this survey asked a particular question of shop stewards: would they support a Cosatu-backed labour party. This may not necessarily translate into support for a “workers’ party”, which can be seen as a more hard left “Marxist-Leninist” vanguard party, an alternative to the SACP (a party type favoured by some of the top leaders in Numsa).
By contrast, the 2014 survey of Cosatu members in five provinces, which asked a more open-ended question about support for an independent workers’ party (in contrast to a Cosatu-backed labour party), revealed a low 8% positive indication. Nevertheless, workers surveyed felt that should the ANC fail them, 30% would vote for another party in the next election, and a further 10% would vote for an alternative workers’ party.
Most of those supporting a workers’ party alternative came from Numsa (40%), with a strong concentration in Gauteng.
The December 2013 Numsa special congress, which voted to seek Cosatu’s disaffiliation from the alliance, was a dramatic reversal of a congress decision, taken in July 2012, to continue to support the alliance. The Marikana massacre a month later clearly shocked the union. In addition, the ANC’s adoption of the “neo-liberal” National Development Plan at its December 2012 Mangaung conference, the uncritical role that the SACP has played since their top leadership went into government, inviting widely publicised public spats between SACP leaders and Numsa leaders, in particular general secretary Irvin Jim, and the open hostility shown towards Zwelinzima Vavi by affiliates with leadership closely aligned to the SACP, added to the growing disaffection amongst some Numsa members.
While many Numsa members might still have supported the ANC, that support was waning as the union’s efforts to implement the congress decisions to explore a “movement for socialism”, and build a “united front”, gathered pace during 2014.
Nevertheless, the decision to go for a united front and movement for socialism, rather than a fully fledged workers’ vanguard party in the first instance (the preference of Jim and other top Numsa leaders) is a reflection of the compromise reached amongst delegates at the 2013 special congress. There was no clear mandate to ditch the ANC completely and form a new party (as opposed to exploring that possibility) – although there was a clear majority in favour of moving out of the alliance.
The 2012 Cosatu shop steward survey, as well as the 2014 UP/-SWOP survey, has confirmed that support for the ANC/SACP alliance is waning. While workers still support the ANC more than any other political party, this is not cast in stone. As the Numsa example has shown, workers can rapidly shift their political allegiances away from the ANC, if a credible working class alternative is presented to them.
The tremendous potential for union and left revitalisation may still be derailed by forces hostile to a democratic left project – either outside Numsa or indeed from within. It all depends on whether the democratic impulse from below will prevail over the elite machinations from above.
- This is an edited extract from Cosatu in Crisis (KMM Review)
OPINION: Can alliance survive the implosion of the trade union federation?
The Marikana massacre of striking mineworkers in 2012 seemed to signal a major turning point for the working class – akin to the last time striking workers were massacred by government 90 years earlier.
Yet the 2014 national elections returned the ANC to power with a healthy majority, winning 62.15% of the vote (albeit with a lower voter turnout). It also won all provinces except, predictably, the Western Cape, and this has given added impetus to the view amongst some trade union leaders that the majority of the black working class still fall squarely behind the party of national liberation, and its alliance partners the SACP and Cosatu.
For ANC/SACP supporters in Cosatu, whatever failings exist within the movement have to be fixed from within.
While some may prefer the leadership of President Jacob Zuma, and feel that accusations against him are exaggerated, others look to Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa to rescue the ruling party. Indeed, in the economic heartland of Gauteng, regarded as a dissident province, Ramaphosa has strong backing.
In the run-up to the 2017 elections for party leadership, other names are likely to emerge.
However, unlike the 2009 and 2012 leadership battles, when Zuma ran against Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe respectively, the next few years will see a dramatically different context. The ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance is no longer the centre of gravity as it once was. The rise of the EFF and the AMCU, and the disaffection of Numsa, offer real alternatives to the “left” of the ANC-alliance. Despite its healthy parliamentary majority, the ruling party has acknowledged that it is facing a potential crisis, as disaffection with its leadership continues to gather momentum. This book uses data obtained from the Cosatu shop steward survey of 2012, as well as a more recent survey conducted before the 2014 elections to assess, amongst other things, what workers’ political attitudes are.
As the 2014 national elections results show, support for the ANC remains widespread, and confirms the intention of 90% of shop stewards surveyed in 2012 to vote for the ANC. The party to score second highest was the SACP at 2%, giving a collective total of 92%.
However, surveys show that workers since 1994 have shown increasing ambivalence when it comes to government performance and support for the ruling party.
While there is a degree of acknowledgement that government has met some worker expectations, workers remain critical of lack of progress in addressing unemployment, rising inequality and persistent poverty, as well as rising corruption in government.
There is however, more severe awareness that government has failed to deliver services at local government level. Workers seem to make a separation between national government – where the ANC functions at a distance – and local government, where blame can be laid at the door of individuals.
At both levels the failures of the ANC can be attributed to individuals – whether Zuma, at national level, and local councillors and mayors at local level.
The organisation itself, however, seems to assume a mythical or religious status and for a large number of workers, can do no wrong.
The 92% recorded ANC/SACP support amongst shop stewards has to be situated in the context of almost half the workers indicating that politics is “too complicated for workers to understand what is going on” (and their high reliance on the SABC for news and information).
As opposed to politicians, surveys continue to show that workers place a greater deal of trust in their union leaders. While influence goes both ways, it seems that a large number of workers rely heavily on their union leaders to give them guidance in political matters.
However, whilst some workers may feel alienated from aspects of the party political process, there is a strong political consciousness. Almost 80% believe that workers should influence the political system, 59% want union leaders to be leaders in political parties, and workers in most affiliates want unions to be involved in politics.
More significantly, if Cosatu were to form a labour party, 65% said they would vote for it in the next elections.
This strongly suggests that, if affiliates allow a free debate within their structures, allegiances to the ANC and the alliance may shift. This is clearly illustrated in the case of Numsa, where debate and argument within the union caused a sea change in attitudes towards the SACP and the alliance.
In the past this was blocked, and in one notable case CEPPWAWU Gauteng regional secretary John Appolis was dismissed from the union for daring to propose a referendum amongst workers on the alliance.
Nevertheless, note must be taken of the fact that this survey asked a particular question of shop stewards: would they support a Cosatu-backed labour party. This may not necessarily translate into support for a “workers’ party”, which can be seen as a more hard left “Marxist-Leninist” vanguard party, an alternative to the SACP (a party type favoured by some of the top leaders in Numsa).
By contrast, the 2014 survey of Cosatu members in five provinces, which asked a more open-ended question about support for an independent workers’ party (in contrast to a Cosatu-backed labour party), revealed a low 8% positive indication. Nevertheless, workers surveyed felt that should the ANC fail them, 30% would vote for another party in the next election, and a further 10% would vote for an alternative workers’ party.
Most of those supporting a workers’ party alternative came from Numsa (40%), with a strong concentration in Gauteng.
The December 2013 Numsa special congress, which voted to seek Cosatu’s disaffiliation from the alliance, was a dramatic reversal of a congress decision, taken in July 2012, to continue to support the alliance. The Marikana massacre a month later clearly shocked the union. In addition, the ANC’s adoption of the “neo-liberal” National Development Plan at its December 2012 Mangaung conference, the uncritical role that the SACP has played since their top leadership went into government, inviting widely publicised public spats between SACP leaders and Numsa leaders, in particular general secretary Irvin Jim, and the open hostility shown towards Zwelinzima Vavi by affiliates with leadership closely aligned to the SACP, added to the growing disaffection amongst some Numsa members.
While many Numsa members might still have supported the ANC, that support was waning as the union’s efforts to implement the congress decisions to explore a “movement for socialism”, and build a “united front”, gathered pace during 2014.
Nevertheless, the decision to go for a united front and movement for socialism, rather than a fully fledged workers’ vanguard party in the first instance (the preference of Jim and other top Numsa leaders) is a reflection of the compromise reached amongst delegates at the 2013 special congress. There was no clear mandate to ditch the ANC completely and form a new party (as opposed to exploring that possibility) – although there was a clear majority in favour of moving out of the alliance.
The 2012 Cosatu shop steward survey, as well as the 2014 UP/-SWOP survey, has confirmed that support for the ANC/SACP alliance is waning. While workers still support the ANC more than any other political party, this is not cast in stone. As the Numsa example has shown, workers can rapidly shift their political allegiances away from the ANC, if a credible working class alternative is presented to them.
The tremendous potential for union and left revitalisation may still be derailed by forces hostile to a democratic left project – either outside Numsa or indeed from within. It all depends on whether the democratic impulse from below will prevail over the elite machinations from above.
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