Cyril Ramaphosa is the man of the moment. His image was emblazoned all over East London this week, on flags, banners and advertising boards punting the ANC’s anniversary celebrations.
People paraded around with his beaming image on cheaply made T-shirts. His name echoed in chants and songs at gatherings throughout the week and at Saturday’s rally, at which he was the star attraction.
Other than South Africa’s national team coaches, nobody is receiving more advice about what to do and how to do it than the new ANC leader. It is difficult to believe how quickly President Jacob Zuma has ceased to be the focal point of the ANC.
Less than a month ago, the ANC was engaged in a debilitating electoral battle that could have resulted in Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma being top of the pops. Only 179 people stood in the way of that happening, but the ANC has clearly moved on.
The past week’s celebrations would have had a different feel had Dlamini-Zuma won. Zuma would still be in vogue, and Bathabile Dlamini would not have been dressed down by young ANC women telling her to make way in the ANC Women's League.
Analysts and economists would be ringing the alarm bells about the country's future, and the rand would be on life support.
Ramaphosa is now the guy many people want to have hope in.
Even with the contentious land issue thrown at him, people believe that his is a safe pair of hands.
The new ANC leader certainly played his part to maximise the buzz around him.
His morning excursion at the East London beachfront titillated the weary news cycle – in no small part due to his festive red and white socks – and showed how easily he could endear himself to people.
But, while Ramaphosa will continue to be the centre of attention, particularly as he manages what is being called “leadership transition” from the Zuma era, this is not a one-man show.
Those whose faces are not emblazoned on the posters also need to be watched as they move their chess pieces.
Many people have now realised that the mixed bag of ANC leaders that emerged from the elective conference was mostly the doing of David Mabuza and Paul Mashatile.
The new ANC deputy president and its treasurer-general manoeuvred under the guise of “unity” to ensure that they and their key lieutenants were elected onto the party’s NEC.
While they appeared to be happy to play second fiddle to Ramaphosa in the past week’s public appearances, it is what they do behind the scenes that matters.
The country is focused on Zuma’s recall and how this will be managed.
But Mabuza and Mashatile are meanwhile moving strategically to stack the national working committee in their favour. The 20 people who make up the NWC deal with the functioning of the party and are privy to what is happening in the provinces and regions.
While Ace Magashule transitions from the Free State to take up his full-time position as secretary-general, Mabuza and Mashatile are looking to entrench themselves in the upper echelons of the party.
They need Ramaphosa as the face of the party and to ensure the ANC wins the 2019 elections, so their agenda will not necessarily be combative. They will, however, continue to manoeuvre in their own interests.
They will help along the process of getting rid of Zuma and loosening the grip of his acolytes on the ANC and the state.
They will also rally support around Ramaphosa as he leads a difficult transition process and aims to break the state capture network.
Ramaphosa does not have a legion of henchmen to do his dirty work, as Zuma did after he was elected in 2007, so he will have to rely on those around him, whether he trusts them or not.
Mabuza and Mashatile will stay onside for as long as it is in their interests to do so.
As soon as the 2019 elections are over, the new succession battle begins in the ANC.
As things stand, Mabuza is in pole position to take over leadership of the ANC as its deputy president.
How Ramaphosa performs as ANC leader, and whether he is able to keep the party in power, will determine how long he remains the president.
For now, Ramaphosa’s attention will be on nudging Zuma out of office and preparing to take power.
Much of the ANC’s approach to governance needs to be reimagined, and getting the right people into strategic positions in the state will be essential.
To keep his political footing, Ramaphosa might need to install a heavy hitter as head of his office in the ANC.
The lesson from how quickly Dlamini-Zuma faded from the scene and how the tide is turning against Zuma is that nobody is indispensable or invincible.
As much as Ramaphosa needs to look ahead, he should also keep looking around.
Mabuza and Mashatile entrenching themselves in ANC’s upper echelons
People paraded around with his beaming image on cheaply made T-shirts. His name echoed in chants and songs at gatherings throughout the week and at Saturday’s rally, at which he was the star attraction.
Other than South Africa’s national team coaches, nobody is receiving more advice about what to do and how to do it than the new ANC leader. It is difficult to believe how quickly President Jacob Zuma has ceased to be the focal point of the ANC.
Less than a month ago, the ANC was engaged in a debilitating electoral battle that could have resulted in Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma being top of the pops. Only 179 people stood in the way of that happening, but the ANC has clearly moved on.
The past week’s celebrations would have had a different feel had Dlamini-Zuma won. Zuma would still be in vogue, and Bathabile Dlamini would not have been dressed down by young ANC women telling her to make way in the ANC Women's League.
Analysts and economists would be ringing the alarm bells about the country's future, and the rand would be on life support.
Ramaphosa is now the guy many people want to have hope in.
Even with the contentious land issue thrown at him, people believe that his is a safe pair of hands.
The new ANC leader certainly played his part to maximise the buzz around him.
His morning excursion at the East London beachfront titillated the weary news cycle – in no small part due to his festive red and white socks – and showed how easily he could endear himself to people.
But, while Ramaphosa will continue to be the centre of attention, particularly as he manages what is being called “leadership transition” from the Zuma era, this is not a one-man show.
Those whose faces are not emblazoned on the posters also need to be watched as they move their chess pieces.
Many people have now realised that the mixed bag of ANC leaders that emerged from the elective conference was mostly the doing of David Mabuza and Paul Mashatile.
The new ANC deputy president and its treasurer-general manoeuvred under the guise of “unity” to ensure that they and their key lieutenants were elected onto the party’s NEC.
While they appeared to be happy to play second fiddle to Ramaphosa in the past week’s public appearances, it is what they do behind the scenes that matters.
The country is focused on Zuma’s recall and how this will be managed.
But Mabuza and Mashatile are meanwhile moving strategically to stack the national working committee in their favour. The 20 people who make up the NWC deal with the functioning of the party and are privy to what is happening in the provinces and regions.
While Ace Magashule transitions from the Free State to take up his full-time position as secretary-general, Mabuza and Mashatile are looking to entrench themselves in the upper echelons of the party.
They need Ramaphosa as the face of the party and to ensure the ANC wins the 2019 elections, so their agenda will not necessarily be combative. They will, however, continue to manoeuvre in their own interests.
They will help along the process of getting rid of Zuma and loosening the grip of his acolytes on the ANC and the state.
They will also rally support around Ramaphosa as he leads a difficult transition process and aims to break the state capture network.
Ramaphosa does not have a legion of henchmen to do his dirty work, as Zuma did after he was elected in 2007, so he will have to rely on those around him, whether he trusts them or not.
Mabuza and Mashatile will stay onside for as long as it is in their interests to do so.
As soon as the 2019 elections are over, the new succession battle begins in the ANC.
As things stand, Mabuza is in pole position to take over leadership of the ANC as its deputy president.
How Ramaphosa performs as ANC leader, and whether he is able to keep the party in power, will determine how long he remains the president.
For now, Ramaphosa’s attention will be on nudging Zuma out of office and preparing to take power.
Much of the ANC’s approach to governance needs to be reimagined, and getting the right people into strategic positions in the state will be essential.
To keep his political footing, Ramaphosa might need to install a heavy hitter as head of his office in the ANC.
The lesson from how quickly Dlamini-Zuma faded from the scene and how the tide is turning against Zuma is that nobody is indispensable or invincible.
As much as Ramaphosa needs to look ahead, he should also keep looking around.
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