Only two ways Ramaphosa can win race to become president

There are only two ways Cyril Ramaphosa could win the contest to become president of the governing party.

ANC branches and members could revolt against the practice of vote-buying that dictates leadership outcomes and sweep away the rot, or a deal could be made between the factions and interest groups that see Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and her growing chorus of backers agree to stand back from the number one position.

Both are long shots.

Even though she has been in the ANC and in a leadership position for much longer than Ramaphosa, we know very little about Dlamini-Zuma and what she stands for. We know she is a dyed-in-the wool ANC member whose instinct would probably be to look to the past greatness of the ANC and its (once unquestionable) moral authority for guidance on where it should go.

But we know very little about her politics now. What does she think about the political morality of those clamouring to push her into the top spot? These include the so-called Premier League – the premiers of Free State, North West and Mpumalanga – all of whom run their provinces on patrimonial lines. What is her view on the dangers of aligning with them?

Like Ramaphosa, Dlamini-Zuma seldom gives interviews. Her public statements tend to be bland and rosy. Her State of the Continent speech in Durban in December contained little of interest or controversy. On Sunday, she walked into Orlando Stadium along with the ANC top six.

She recently dumped an AU event to rush to South Africa for an ANC national executive meeting during which President Jacob Zuma was under threat.

Reports from the meeting say she spoke in favour of “unity”, which was viewed as a proxy for keeping Zuma in his position, notwithstanding the damage he has wrought on the ANC.

She has not distanced herself from the numerous calls naming her the preferred candidate for the presidency. From all this, we can deduce her hand is up to do the top job.

So, on to Ramaphosa’s second possible strategy for becoming president: a widespread revolt within the governing party against the well-worn phenomenon of money politics.

It is hard to say exactly when vote-buying in the ANC began, but by Polokwane in 2007, it was already well established.

In the past, it has also included all sorts of perks handed out as patronage, from jobs in municipalities to huge IT tenders for cities or government departments but, more and more, it includes a handover of cash.

Speaking on Friday at a commemoration of the life of Joe Slovo hosted by the South African Communist Party (SACP), Ramaphosa made his most direct statement yet that he too is up for president.

He also gave an indication of his core strategy: as he does not intend to engage in the practice, he attacked the phenomenon of money politics itself.

“A new tendency has come into our movement. Money is now able to buy votes. They say: ‘Vote for so-and-so and we will give you R5000 or R50000.’ are full of cash,” he said.

This is an encouraging comment for those who hope Ramaphosa can save the ANC.

But along with such statements, Ramaphosa lacks what he needs most to organise a revolution in the party: organisation.

Perhaps the SACP and trade union federation Cosatu can help.

They are his best bet. But, unless he and his supporters can recruit, organise and sign up hundreds of ANC members to the project to restore the integrity of the ANC, bold public statements will remain just talk.

Paton is deputy editor of Business Day