ANALYSIS: Why Zuma is moving on Gordhan now
You will not understand President Jacob Zuma’s actions unless you accept the somewhat depressing reality that South Africa now inhabits.
Zuma may once have been master of his own destiny‚ but that point has long passed. He is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the vast Gupta network which has benefited from its association with him‚ his family‚ and the ministers and officials that he has put in place with their blessing.
That is why Zuma is acting to clip the wings of finance minister Pravin Gordhan.
The second matter which is coming to a head is that of the payment of social grants.
The Constitutional Court has placed the Treasury at the centre of the process of getting the grants mess sorted out. This will‚ inevitably‚ mean the cessation of the contract between Cash Paymaster Services and the South African Social Security Agency (Sassa). And said business will not be permitted to increase its fees or extract greater profit unless it can persuade the Treasury to allow this. Under Gordhan this is not going to happen.
The Treasury has given social development minister Bathabile Dlamini its views on how to proceed with grant payments. Dlamini‚ apparently not having read the judgment closely enough‚ is trying to manage the process through a “ministerial committee”‚ which would make Gordhan and the Treasury one among many at the table. Gordhan is having none of it.
Added to this fraught environment was a bad weekend for Zuma at the ANC’s national executive committee meeting‚ where his big play at turning the Eastern Cape into another arm of the “Premier League”‚ Andile Lungisa‚ was criticised.
Lungisa broke party rules by standing for office in a “lower” body than the regional executive on which he sits when he ran for leader of the Nelson Mandela Bay ANC.
Lungisa was subsequently made to step down.
And there was criticism of Zuma’s recent comments on land reform in which he supported the taking of land without compensation.
The pressure on Zuma is mounting and something is going to give.
He is going to bend Gordhan and his deputy‚ Mcebisi Jonas‚ to his will‚ or he is going to fire them‚ whatever the consequences. The Guptas have a man in place on the benches of Parliament to fill Gordhan’s seat at a moment’s notice – the recently sworn-in Brian Molefe‚ who was running Eskom when the Guptas concluded coal contracts.
So here we are‚ once more on the edge of a precipice. The rand has lost 3% of its value on Zuma’s recalling Gordhan from his investor road show. It will lose much more if Gordhan is fired.
Should Zuma go ahead with this strategy‚ you can expect the ANC to finally disintegrate into all-out open war between the Zuma camp and those opposed‚ including Gordhan.
Brace for impact.