Fertile ground for presidential wannabes

In the early hours of a wintry Saturday morning in June 2012, a private jet landed at Mthatha airport.

On board was a presidential hopeful, Tokyo Sexwale, and his entourage of minders and hangers-on.

Sexwale owned the jet. It was just a few months before the ANC’s 53rd national congress in Mangaung.

The irony was not lost on most of us reporters at the time: Sexwale was flying in on his own jet in much the same way that he was pushing his own presidential campaign – with only a few on board and no chance of his ever flying in the Inkwazi.

But nevertheless Sexwale had his eyes fixed on the prize. He wanted to be president so much that it did not matter what he did or who he aligned himself with to get there.

His first engagement of that day was to address a crowd of disgruntled residents in Norwood.

They were unhappy with the failure of the King Sabata Dalindyebo Municipality to transfer ownership of the dilapidated municipal flats in which they lived to them.

After a charming speech – Sexwale promised to help them resolve their problems – the residents broke into song: “uTokyo unobubele ngathi, wasithatha etipini wasibeka eflethini .”

Suffice to say the same residents are still fighting the same battle they were before Sexwale’s visit.

It is now history that Sexwale was defeated by Cyril Ramaphosa for the position of deputy president of the ANC. But very few remember there was another candidate for the position, one Mathews Phosa.

He made an appearance in the Eastern Cape this weekend again in search of support, this time ahead of the ANC’s elective conference in December when the ANC will appoint a replacement for President Jacob Zuma.

In 2012 both Phosa and Sexwale wanted the deputy presidency so much that they went to the extent of splitting the vote of the anti-Zuma camp at Mangaung. They went up against the Zuma camp’s candidate for deputy president – Ramaphosa – who won more than 3000 votes compared to Phosa and Sexwale’s 470 and 463 respectively.

I was reminded of the Sexwale episode when I listened to Phosa addressing ANC supporters at the NU12 community hall in Mdantsane on Sunday. After he had declared that he was ready to be president, the gathering sang “Phosa sikhokhele ” and a few branches pledged their support to the former Mpumalanga premier.

Let’s be clear though, Phosa will not be the president of the ANC.

The same goes for Lindiwe Sisulu and Baleka Mbete, two other presidential hopefuls who have also courted the support of the Eastern Cape’s ANC’s branches in recent months.

The reality is that the race to succeed Zuma is between Ramaphosa and former African Union commission chair, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. The other so-called campaigns are merely attempts by the other hopefuls to secure top positions, preferably in the top six.

Going forward it will not be a surprise to see any one of them aligning themselves with either of the two dominant camps.

Alliances are inevitably formed as it is numbers that ultimately determines who the victor is. Even a few hundred guaranteed votes can be enough to secure accommodation in one of the factions’ slates.

One might wonder why the Eastern Cape is always the target of every other politician who wants to become ANC leader.

For the simple reason that KwaZulu-Natal has, until recently, been impenetrable to those seeking to challenge Zuma or his preferred choices.

Over the weekend the president made it clear who he favoured as his successor, telling a church gathering in Bulwer, KZN, that Dlamini-Zuma was “someone you can trust”.

But while the KZN ANC leadership has pledged support for Dlamini-Zuma, the president has, in true fashion, managed to divide the province that once backed him almost 100%.

The herd mentality that once characterised KZN’s support for Zuma is now a thing of the past. Ramaphosa seems to be making some headway there.

The Eastern Cape on the other hand has always had internal divisions that have made it easier for every sort of hopeful to find a gap for planting their flag here.

Whether this is good or bad is a debate for another day.

As the ANC in the province prepares for its own elective conference in July, it seems the prevailing divisions between the supporters of chairman Phumulo Masualle and provincial secretary Oscar Mabuyane will further fragment the ANC in the province.

A contest between the two – with Mabuyane challenging Masualle as chairman – seems inevitable as attempts to “unite” them have all but failed.

So dear reader, don’t be surprised if you see a few more presidential hopefuls coming out of the woodwork. Conference season is upon us and the Eastern Cape is fertile ground for picking up support.

With every conference that comes the same songs will be sung, only the protagonists will change.

Sibusiso Ngalwa is the editor of the Daily Dispatch