Bhisho predicts coronavirus could kill 6,000 in Eastern Cape in next three months

The national lockdown did not help the Eastern Cape increase its capacity to deal with the coronavirus, and now between 5,500 and 6,000 people are expected to die from the dreaded Covid-19 complications in the next three months.

The shocking projection is contained in a provincial command council (PCC) report released by premier Oscar Mabuyane on Monday.

The report states that based on the projections and data supplied in May, Bhisho does not have enough capability in place to manage the rising demand of the pandemic.

“Unless capabilities are exponentially and rapidly increased, the province will experience demand exceeding supply.

“It would appear from the data that the lockdown did not produce the required increase in capacity in the Eastern Cape to deal with the future demand.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa has consistently said the lockdown, which came into effect on March 27, was to help SA prepare its health facilities while slowing the rate of infection.

In the Eastern Cape, it has been predicted, new cases will peak in the next two weeks.

As of  Tuesday afternoon the province had 6,341 confirmed cases. Of these, 127 have died and 2,666 have recovered.

The PCC report warns that infrastructure and support services need to be put in place “as a matter of urgency” to deal with the looming crisis.

“If the modelling is correct, the Eastern Cape is at the start of an exponential increase in deaths over the next three months.

“Based on the projections the cumulative death toll could be between 5,500 and 6,000. These peaks could be reached between October and November.”

On Monday, Mabuyane called for alcohol sales to be banned in the province after it emerged that 3,145 crimes linked to alcohol were reported since the start of level 3 on June 1.

The PCC has asked the national command council (NCC) to consider its alcohol ban request in the province.

On Tuesday, he told Umhlobo Wenene FM that because their request for a new ban on alcohol affected different people, including businesses and employees, they were not expecting a decision from the NCC until extensive consultation was done.

However, in a virtual meeting on Tuesday, Eastern Cape Black Business Forum chair Luthando Bara said the provincial government should rather strengthen enforcement and education around Covid-19 and encourage responsible drinking.

“While we welcome any measures to stem the tide of growing infections through a comprehensive containment strategy, the abrupt closure of liquor trading is ill-advised without rolling out measures for the liquor industry to survive through the Covid-19 relief fund,” he said.

An alcohol ban in the province would result in panic buying and overstocking, and would not only strengthen the black market but fail to deliver desired results.

“There must be consequences for liquor stores that operate beyond the hours set in the lockdown regulations.

“The government must not take short cuts but deal with real issues. Let us all take the necessary steps to ensure there is compliance where possible and to save businesses from total collapse,” Bara said.

The Eastern Cape Liquor Board (ECLB) said it was working around the clock to clamp down on noncompliance in the province.

ECLB spokesperson Mgwebi Msiya said they were concerned with the sharp increase in crimes and trauma cases in hospitals and clinics that have been attributed to alcohol consumption.

“The fact that there has been an upsurge in alcohol-related road accidents is proof of the high levels of noncompliance with the regulation, which prescribes that people must consume alcohol at home only.”

In the public interest, most of our coronavirus news isn’t behind our paywall, and is free to read. To support our mission of delivering award-winning, independent local news, subscribe from as little as R45 per month by clicking here.