Death toll of 6,000 is worst case scenario says health SG

Eastern Cape health superintendent-general Dr Thobile Mbengashe has sought to downplay a warning that up to 6,000 people in the Eastern Cape could die from Covid-19 in the next three months.

Despite the provincial command council (PCC) report that clearly states the figure, Mbengashe told the Dispatch on Wednesday that it represented the “worst-case scenario” and the likelihood was that there would not be nearly as many deaths.

He said this would have been the outcome had the government not introduced measures to curb the spread of the virus, and were people not practising physical distancing and handwashing.

The report, which was released on Monday, states: “If the modelling is correct the Eastern Cape is at the start of an exponential increase in deaths over the next three months.

“Based on the projections the cumulative death toll could be between 5,500 and 6,000.”

The report said this peak could be reached between October and November.  

But Mbengashe emphasised this was a worst-case scenario  “which would have meant the coronavirus had grown very quickly and surged and it would have affected so many people”.

“But that scenario is no longer possible because we had lockdown and we have flattened the curve. So the 6,000 deaths was the worst case scenario — if nothing was done.”

Mbengashe said the national lockdown had reduced the infection rate by almost 70%.

“What we are having now is a scenario that has been assisted by the lockdown. It stopped many deaths that could have come with a rapid rise of new infections.

“That would have overwhelmed the healthcare system, and we would have got the images we saw in Italy.”

“We are not peaking where we would have peaked had we done nothing.

“It has allowed us to build the health services, to provide PPE (personal protective equipment), to build new hospitals and train our nurses.

“With the lockdown strategy we were able to manage hotspots like East London.”

The provincial health department has come under fire from health workers for not providing adequate PPE or protecting them from infection.

Doctors and nurses across the province have contracted the virus.

But Mbengashe said in most cases, health workers became infected outside the actual health facilities.

“The biggest problem we have is people not taking precautionary measures like physical distancing and wearing masks, and this happens outside hospitals.

“If you look at the number of patients who are hospitalised [for Covid-19], they are too few to explain the number of nurses who have been infected.

“There are about 300 patients in all our hospitals. But the number of infected nurses is almost 200. So the patients cannot be responsible [for infecting those nurses].”

Asked what sort of medication was being administered to Covid-19 patients, Mbengashe said there were no special pills or liquids.

“The important thing for Covid-19 patients is oxygen support. There’s no medication for Covid-19. 

“About 80% of patients heal on their own; 15% have a severe illness and we provide them with oxygen support,” he said.

Mbengashe said doctors deployed from Cuba working in hotspots like Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City Metro, Chris Hani and OR Tambo were playing a huge role in fighting Covid-19.

“Some are collecting data on the epidemic so they can advise government on what to do.”

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