Covid-19 predictions were wrong, says premier

While the epidemiological modelling used through the Covid-19 pandemic to guide public health actions predicted the virus would be catastrophic for the Eastern Cape, premier Oscar Mabuyane says the predictions were wrong.

At the beginning of June, Mabuyane announced that between 5,500 and 6,000 people in the province were expected to die from Covid-19 complications by the end of August.

But as of Tuesday night there were 2,903 Covid-19-related deaths.

The Eastern Cape was seen to be vulnerable to the pandemic because of its high number of confirmed cases at the time.

In July, project management unit team leader Dr Sibongile Zungu was reported to have told the media the province would be so overwhelmed by the predicted surge in new infections that patients would have to be admitted for treatment in neighbouring provinces.

At the time, the Eastern Cape was recording 2,000 cases a day. However, Mabuyane announced on Monday that there had been a reduction in morbidity and mortality from Covid-19.

As of Tuesday night, the province had recorded 86,217 confirmed cases, 82,233 recoveries and 2,903 deaths.

Mabuyane said 58% of the Covid-19 cases occurred in July, 27.6% in June and 9.4% in August, while 50.9% of the deaths were recorded in July, 27.6% in June, and 10.8% in August.

“We are on a better footing than we anticipated as our epidemiological data signals that we are winning the fight against the virus [faster] than projected by various experts.

“Various models presented by health experts predicted that cases will peak in July and early August, and that under almost all scenarios hospital and ICU capacity will be exceeded.

“Both these projections have been proven wrong. However, we are glad that they were made because they pushed us to work with agility in responding to the virus,” he said.

Mabuyane said there was a 95% recovery rate in the province.

“We currently have 560 hospitalised patients in our province, meaning our healthcare facilities are not under duress. On August 1 hospitalisation stood at 942. The decrease in demand has created scope for us to refocus resource allocation to strengthen the entire health system going forward.”

While the peak in the province was not as high as they had expected, Mabuyane warned it would be premature to say the war had been won against the coronavirus.

“While we appreciate these results, we are not under the illusion that we have defeated this virus, thus we are not ceasing our efforts of completely stopping its spread in our communities.”

Daily Dispatch