Will the whole of winter be like this? Here are the best and worst case scenarios for load-shedding

Just when SA can't seem to get a break from load-shedding, Eskom announces an increase in the number of days the country can expect blackouts this winter. 

The embattled state-owned power utility announced there could be as many as 101 days of load-shedding this winter.

Eskom on Tuesday provided an update on the state of the power system after load-shedding was ramped up to stage 4 due to failing generating plants. 

The 101 days of load-shedding prediction comes a week after Eskom’s control manager Gavin Hurford predicted that SA would be in the dark for 100 days. 

WHAT IS THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO?

Eskom’s head of transmission Segomoco Scheppers said the power utility expects between 37 and 101 days of load-shedding during winter. 

However, this depends on how much generation capacity Eskom will lose during winter. 

Eskom has to contain unplanned breakdowns below 12,500MW to avoid load-shedding. If unplanned breakdowns surpass the 12,500MW mark during winter, Eskom’s “extreme case” scenario of load-shedding will probably become a reality.

WHAT IS THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO?

The best-case scenario, according to Eskom, is that load-shedding will be suspended on Friday.

A medium-case scenario means the country would be in darkness for 32 days during winter. 

Eskom's group executive for generation Philip Dukashe said the utility will decide whether to suspend load-shedding by Thursday evening or Friday morning.

“We are hoping to be in a better position by Thursday evening, based on the units that will be coming back over this week,” he said. 

WHAT COULD "SAVE" US?

Eskom CEO André de Ruyter said the government could bring more megawatts to the grid immediately with simple regulatory changes.

He called for an easing of regulations to allow independent power producers (IPPs) to feed into the grid.

He also called for the authorisation of a “standard offer” through which Eskom would seek bids from small private generators to sell their electricity into the grid under three-year contracts.

Eskom would require the approval of the National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) and the regulator’s assurance that it could recover the costs through tariffs.

“We believe there is about 200MW of capacity that can be added from existing IPPs which they have available from time to time. They are contractually limited from feeding that into the grid. We would urge the independent power procurement plan office to accelerate its efforts to enable the contracts to be amended,” said De Ruyter. 

TimesLIVE