Infantile politics, not JZ, cause of ANC decline

The most obvious and basic lesson of democracy is that political power wanes the minute it is acquired.

This arises from a number of issues ranging from failure to meet electoral promises, which are often unrealistic or exaggerated, to factors relating to the creeping sins of incumbency such as complacency, arrogance, factionalism and corruption especially for parties that stay long in power.

The decline of the ANC’s electoral performance is a result of a compendium of factors. This is contrary to the simplistic, predictable and pedestrian commentary that tends to reduce the country’s problems to a single individual.

If ANC conference declarations are anything to go by, the party offers a more nuanced appreciation of its challenges. Addressing its national general council through its president last year, the ANC observed; “Practices and tendencies inconsistent with the values of the ANC threaten the effectiveness of our movement as an instrument for liberation.... Therefore, we reaffirm our resolve to root out corruption, factionalism, buying of members and gate keeping.... To confront the practice of factionalism in leadership elections, we agreed that the formalisation of lobby groups and the promotion of slates should be disciplinary offences.”

Aside from attesting to the health of our democracy, the elections point to a number of useful considerations.

First, what is remarkable about the electoral outcome is not so much the decline in the ANC’s electoral margins but its continued overall electoral dominance after being in power for more than two decades.

This is rare in modern democracies where elections are largely free and fair.

Second, despite the ANC’s comparatively poor performance in the administrative, industrial and economic centres in the hotly contested metros such as the Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane, and Johannesburg, the ANC leads comfortably in all the provinces except the Western Cape where the DA has consolidated its support.

Third, the electorate refused to entrust any party with an outright majority in any of the key metros except the City of Cape Town. It could be argued that contrary to the popular view, the ANC – its internal problems notwithstanding – held its own against opposition parties that ran slick, well-oiled and spirited election campaigns. The ruling party is its own enemy.

Fourth, the fact that opposition parties succeeded in making inroads in the traditional constituency of the ruling party is in itself an affirmation of the vibrancy of our democracy under the ANC rule.

Fifth, contrary to conventional wisdom, the now common stand-off between three arms of government, exploited by some opposition parties, is not by itself a threat to our democracy.

Contestation is the lifeblood of a thriving democracy. Far from being settled, the lines demarcating the powers of the three arms of government will continue to be a matter of contestation.

US President Barack Obama’s observation in his book, The Audacity of Hope is worth repeating. He opines that more than 200 years after the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights was ratified, “one of the surprising things about Washington is the amount of time spent arguing, not about what the law should be, but rather what the law is.

“Partly it’s the nature of the law itself. Much of the time, the law is settled and plain. But life turns up new problems, and lawyers, officials and citizens debate the meaning of terms that seemed clear years or even months before.”