Modelling is no silver ball, we still need to work out what to do ourselves


The publication of the national epidemiological model recently spread fear and dismay as it forecasts 40,000 deaths by November from Covid-19, with 1-million people falling ill. This sort of projection risks creating the perception that we cannot limit the contagion — that flattening the curve just means spreading out the timeline of people contracting Covid-19. It has become a reference point for the argument that we should just get on with our lives and drop the heavy burden of seeking to prevent infections...

This article is reserved for DispatchLIVE subscribers.

A subscription gives you full digital access to all our content.

Already subscribed? Simply sign in below.

Already registered on HeraldLIVE, BusinessLIVE, TimesLIVE or SowetanLIVE? Sign in with the same details.

Questions or problems? Email or call 0860 52 52 00.