Red flag for ANC as it retains wards but by thinner margins in Gauteng
The ANC won most wards in by-elections across Gauteng on Wednesday.
In Doornkop (Soweto) the ANC received 72%, the EFF 11%, the DA 5% and the the ATM 5% of the votes cast.
The EFF and the DA failed to make inroads.
The ANC also held Ward 122 (Vlakfontein, Lehae) in Johannesburg by 73%, followed by the EFF 11%, DA 8%, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) 3%, African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) 2% and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) 2%.
According to elections analyst Dawie Scholtz, the ANC needs to match its 2016 level in townships to feel "50% safe in Gauteng".
"Preferably they should be over-performing," Scholtz said. "Underperforming the township voting pattern by as little as 2%-5% in the townships will be fatal in Gauteng. There's no margin for error." According to Scholtz, the ANC was down five percentage points in Doornkop and Vlakfontein on its 2016 results.
The ANC had good results in Chris Hani in Mpumalanga with 87%, Abaqulusi in KwaZulu-Natal with 49%, and in Sol Plaatjie in the Northern Cape with 42% of the vote.
In other provinces, the DA in the Western Cape took majority-coloured wards from the ANC in Hessequa.
The DA also held Ward 9 in Stellenbosch convincingly with 99%, followed by the ANC's 1%.
1/ Good morning folks! Delicious set of by-election data out this morning!— Dawie Scholtz (@DawieScholtz) April 11, 2019
Two crucial results in Joburg:
ANC 72 (-5)
ATM 5 (!)
ANC 73 (-5)
These results look tame, but actually big red flag for the ANC!
2/ The ANC needs AT LEAST to match its 2016 level in townships to feel safe for 50% in Gauteng. Preferably they should be overperforming.— Dawie Scholtz (@DawieScholtz) April 11, 2019
Underperforming the township voting pattern by as little as 2-5% in the townships will be fatal in GP. There's no margin for error.
DA hold Ward 18 in George (Denneoord Loerie Park) in the Western Cape. 74% (83%) VF+ 17% (14%) ACDP 8% (3%). ACDP fielded a \high profile candidate+former DA ward cllr. 43% Poll. Good turnout. DA support consistent in both VDs. VF+ got 20% in Loerie Park.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 10, 2019
ANC hold Ward 18 (KwaTshatshu KuGongqo) in Intsika Yethu in the Chris Hani District of the Eastern Cape. ANC 76% (83%) UDM 20% (3%) EFF 4% (6%). Rural ward. UDM had good growth in KuGongco and Lower Ncora. Solid hold for the ANC. 51% Poll— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 10, 2019
ANC hold Ward 4 (Dukuza Hoffenthal) in Okhahlamba in KZN. ANC 35% (52%) IFP 26% (26%) NFP 24% EFF 12% (3%) ATM 2% COPE 1% (8%). Turnout 66% (60%). A scare for the ANC as the NFP shows some life in it. Nice growth for the EFF.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 11, 2019
DA take Ward 4 in Hessequa (Heidelberg Slangrivier) from the ANC DA 54% (34%) ANC 40% (49%) Ind-Hoogbaard 3% (2%) Ind-September 2% VF+ 1% (3%). Turnout 68% (74%). Big win for the DA. They now have outright control of Hessequa.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 11, 2019
ANC hold Ward 6 (Mpuluzi Elukwatini) in Chief Albert Luthuli in Mpumalanga. ANC 87% (80%) EFF 7% (9%) IFP 6% (3%). Turnout 42% (57%). ANC did best in Mpumalanga in 2014. Ominous message to the opposition.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 11, 2019
DA hold Ward 8 (Toekomsrus Bhongweni) in Rand West City. DA 51% (46%) ANC 39% (40%) EFF 9% ACM (Hlaudi) 1%. 32% (61%) Turnout. Key hold for the DA in a marginal race. This will encourage the party for May.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 11, 2019
ANC hold Ward 21 (Hlahlindela Ezidulini) in AbaQulusi in KZN ANC 50% (45%) IFP 47% (44%) NFP 2% EFF 1% (3%). Turnout 57% (56%). Key hold for the ANC. Council seats ANC 22 IFP 18 DA 3 EFF 1. Expect the ANC to approach the EFF for outside support so that they can govern.— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) April 11, 2019