Jobs top reason for voters' party choices ahead of elections: survey

Issues related to socioeconomic wellbeing are among leading factors determining voter choice in the 2024 national general elections, research shows.

The top reasons to support a party (according to survey responses) are that it will:

• create jobs (55%);
• improve people’s lives (49%);
• improve service delivery (48%); and
• pay social grants (44%).

This reflects the high unemployment rates, persistently high rates of poverty and a stagnant economy.

The study was conducted by the Centre for Social Development in Africa at the University of Johannesburg, assessing the views of 3,500 respondents nationally and drawing from fieldwork conducted by market research company Ipsos between October and December 2023.

Asked their party choice, 33% said the ANC, 19% said the EFF and 15% said the DA. Survey results showed 12% said they would vote for other opposition parties, and 21% said either they would not vote, refused to say, were not registered or did not know who they would vote for.

This reflects a loss of ANC support from previous waves of the surveys, where it hovered at just more than 50%. The EFF has almost doubled since the centre's 2020 survey while support for the DA is consistent with previous waves. The survey was done before the establishment of former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party.

Testing whether receiving a social grant mattered in voter preferences, the study found that of the respondents who received a grant from government, 47% said they would vote ANC, and 53% would vote for an opposition party (compared to 26% in 2020). Of the non-recipients, 39% said they would vote for the ANC and 61% said they would vote for an opposition party.

In previous waves, when asked this question, almost two-thirds of respondents said they would vote for the ANC.

Study authors Leila Patel, Yolanda Sadie and Jaclyn de Klerk. said: “The expanded base of grant recipients may be why this finding differs from previous waves. Before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the largest number of grant recipients were women receiving the child support grant and the elderly receiving the old age pension. Now, many grant recipients are young and are unemployed adults who have different party loyalties to older generations.

“This shift might [also] be because opposition parties have increasingly come out in support of the social grant system. For example, the DA has been promising to increase the child support grant from R510 a month to R760 a month in line with Stats SA’s food poverty line. Opposition party ActionSA said the R350 social relief of distress (post-Covid) grant is too low and people deserve more. The multi-party charter pledged to increase social grants above the poverty line.”

When asked whether they are in principle in favour of a coalition government at a national level after the elections, most respondents (38.9%) said no. The most negative are ANC supporters (40.1%) followed by EFF supporters (34.9%) and DA supporters (32.5%). Though other smaller opposition parties are unlikely to win the elections, 38.1% of their supporters do not support a coalition government.

“The negative attitude towards a coalition government at national level is unsurprising given the poor track record in service delivery, governance and corruption in coalition governments at municipal and provincial levels,” the study authors said.

Corruption also remains a significant predictor of voter choice. Those who are of the view the government is corrupt and is not doing enough to root out corruption are more likely to vote for an opposition party than the ANC.

“That there are ongoing investigations and prosecutions might be a reason some respondents may support the ANC.”

Four out of 10 respondents selected trust in the party leader as one of their reasons for selecting their party.  On this aspect, the centre found trust in the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa increased gradually over the different waves, from 54% in 2019 to 60% in 2020 and 77% in 2023.

“Increased trust in Ramaphosa’s presidency in 2020 could be attributed to the government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2023 the reason for this increase in trust of the president is unclear but may be attributed to him being outspoken on corruption and heralding prosecuting those who have been accused of corruption. Nevertheless, it does suggest support for Ramaphosa is greater than that for the ANC,” the study authors said.

Demographics are good predictors of party choice, the authors said.

“Young people aged 18 to 34 years are more likely to vote for an opposition party compared to older persons aged 35 to 60 who are more likely to vote for the incumbent party, the ANC.

“Of the 27.7-million registered voters for the 2024 election, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) reported an increase in representation of young voters. They make up 42%, or 11.7-million, of registered voters. Youth voter turnout in this election could have a significant impact on the outcome. A low youth voter turnout will not favour opposition parties such as the EFF, whose major support come from the youth.

“Women are 34% more likely to vote for the ANC than for an opposition party. In 2017, women’s support for the ANC was not a predictor of party choice. But in subsequent surveys, including 2023, their support for the ANC was found to be a factor. Just over half (55%) of registered voters are women, according to the IEC. But few parties appear to target women voters.”

There are 315 political parties registered for the elections at national and provincial levels.

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